Betting Lines
| Spread | PFW -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | PFW -148 RMU +124 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PFW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PFW +12 | 154 | Won |
| Massey | PFW -1.3 (+10.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.1 (+2.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 69% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 60% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PFW -0.2 (+11.8) | 146.2 (+7.8) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PFW -1.7 (+10.3) | 146.5 (+7.5) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PFW -0.9 (+11.1) | 148.2 (+5.8) | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PFW -1.1 (+10.9) | 147.2 (+6.8) | 56% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 11, 2026 | PFW 79 – 74 RMU |
| Feb 15, 2025 | RMU 76 – 69 PFW |
| Dec 8, 2024 | PFW 82 – 77 RMU |
| Mar 6, 2024 | PFW 78 – 63 RMU |
| Mar 3, 2024 | PFW 83 – 65 RMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PFW | RMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-15 | 22-11 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 13-7 |
| Home | 11-4 | 14-3 |
| Away | 6-11 | 8-7 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.2 | 76.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.8 | 73.4 |
| Massey | -4.2 (#235) | -2.4 (#202) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.19 (#151) | -0.07 (#178) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.36 (#199) | -0.13 (#175) |
| RPI | 0.506 (#163) | 0.491 (#198) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PFW | RMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.1% | 46.3% |
| 3PT% | 34.1% | 37.9% |
| REB / G | 29.1 | 37.0 |
| OREB / G | 7.9 | 13.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.43 | 1.36 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.3% | 53.9% |
| TOV% | 14.1% | 18.9% |
| ORB% | 22.4% | 38.0% |
| FT Rate | 19.8% | 21.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.0% | 51.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.8% | 15.9% |
| DRB% | 63.7% | 70.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.4% | 34.1% |
Game Analysis
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