Betting Lines
| Spread | PFW -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Over |
| Money | PFW -600 RMU +500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PFW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PFW +18 | 148 | Won |
| Massey | PFW -11.7 (+6.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.3 (-5.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PFW -11.8 (+6.2) | 152.4 (-4.4) | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PFW -9.3 (+8.7) | 153.0 (-5.0) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PFW -11.4 (+6.6) | 151.5 (-3.5) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PFW -11.3 (+6.7) | 152.4 (-4.4) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | PFW 83 – 71 RMU |
| Jan 11, 2026 | PFW 79 – 74 RMU |
| Feb 15, 2025 | RMU 76 – 69 PFW |
| Dec 8, 2024 | PFW 82 – 77 RMU |
| Mar 6, 2024 | PFW 78 – 63 RMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PFW | RMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-13 | 10-22 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 6-14 |
| Home | 11-5 | 7-9 |
| Away | 10-8 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 2-0 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L7 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.3 | 72.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.9 | 77.4 |
| Massey | 1.2 (#148) | -7.2 (#290) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.14 (#183) | -1.79 (#321) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.10 (#172) | -2.16 (#320) |
| RPI | 0.482 (#215) | 0.428 (#315) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PFW | RMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.0% | 43.2% |
| 3PT% | 36.1% | 33.6% |
| REB / G | 31.3 | 34.8 |
| OREB / G | 8.2 | 12.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.22 | 0.98 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.8% | 50.3% |
| TOV% | 14.5% | 19.7% |
| ORB% | 22.9% | 33.8% |
| FT Rate | 22.5% | 21.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.5% | 53.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.1% | 16.1% |
| DRB% | 69.3% | 69.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.4% | 27.6% |
Game Analysis
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