Betting Lines
| Spread | PFW -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Over |
| Money | PFW -500 RMU +360 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PFW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PFW +5 | 159 | Won |
| Massey | PFW -13.7 (-8.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.2 (+12.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PFW -10.7 (-5.7) | 145.8 (+13.2) | 79% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PFW -10.8 (-5.8) | 145.3 (+13.7) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PFW -9.0 (-4.0) | 144.5 (+14.5) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PFW -9.3 (-4.3) | 145.3 (+13.7) | 83% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | PFW 83 – 71 RMU |
| Jan 11, 2026 | PFW 79 – 74 RMU |
| Feb 15, 2025 | RMU 76 – 69 PFW |
| Mar 6, 2024 | PFW 78 – 63 RMU |
| Mar 3, 2024 | PFW 83 – 65 RMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PFW | RMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-13 | 26-9 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 15-5 |
| Home | 12-2 | 16-2 |
| Away | 6-10 | 8-6 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.4 | 76.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.3 | 71.6 |
| Massey | 4.1 (#104) | -5.1 (#256) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.20 (#155) | -0.52 (#218) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.43 (#144) | -0.95 (#231) |
| RPI | 0.522 (#131) | 0.452 (#257) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PFW | RMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.7% | 39.4% |
| 3PT% | 36.3% | 29.4% |
| REB / G | 30.1 | 38.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.2 | 12.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.49 | 0.87 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.6% | 44.9% |
| TOV% | 13.2% | 19.9% |
| ORB% | 28.0% | 32.2% |
| FT Rate | 22.7% | 28.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.9% | 50.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.8% | 17.7% |
| DRB% | 65.2% | 78.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.4% | 23.4% |
Game Analysis
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