Betting Lines
| Spread | UNI -11.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 128.5 Under |
| Money | UNI -800 EVAN +550 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNI win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNI +16 | 126 | Won |
| Massey | UNI -14.8 (+1.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 122.8 (+3.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNI -11.5 (+4.5) | 128.4 (-2.4) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNI -10.3 (+5.7) | 128.0 (-2.0) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNI -10.6 (+5.4) | 126.5 (-0.5) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNI -9.8 (+6.2) | 130.2 (-4.2) | 84% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | UNI 68 – 59 EVAN |
| Jan 4, 2026 | UNI 62 – 48 EVAN |
| Jan 15, 2025 | UNI 73 – 56 EVAN |
| Jan 24, 2024 | UNI 70 – 63 EVAN |
| Dec 2, 2023 | EVAN 91 – 89 UNI |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNI | EVAN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-13 | 7-25 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 3-17 |
| Home | 12-5 | 5-10 |
| Away | 6-6 | 1-12 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.6 | 65.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 62.5 | 78.3 |
| Massey | 4.7 (#106) | -7.0 (#274) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.37 (#129) | -1.47 (#295) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.34 (#140) | -1.68 (#284) |
| RPI | 0.536 (#108) | 0.454 (#257) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNI | EVAN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.1% | 41.9% |
| 3PT% | 32.1% | 30.7% |
| REB / G | 32.5 | 32.0 |
| OREB / G | 7.0 | 8.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.45 | 0.91 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.5% | 48.3% |
| TOV% | 14.6% | 20.2% |
| ORB% | 20.8% | 23.8% |
| FT Rate | 18.1% | 24.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.1% | 53.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.7% | 16.3% |
| DRB% | 73.6% | 70.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.4% | 26.0% |
Game Analysis
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