The black queen chants the funeral march, the cracked brass bells will ring / To summon back the fire witch to the court of the crimson king "The Court of the Crimson King" - King Crimson
Atlantic Coast Conference · McCamish Pavilion · January 31, 2026
Betting Lines
Spread UNC -9.5 Away covered
O/U 160.5 Over
Money GT +410 / UNC -550
Model Predictions
Spread Total GT win
Actual UNC +16 166 Lost
Massey UNC -10.6 (-5.4)
Massey Totals 153.0 (+13.0)
Bradley-Terry 8%
Weighted B-T 4%
Baseline Plus ML UNC -9.5 (-6.5) 149.5 (+16.5) 22%
Model 4 ML UNC -9.1 (-6.9) 150.1 (+15.9) 24%
Model 3 ML UNC -9.3 (-6.7) 149.1 (+16.9) 20%
Baseline ML UNC -8.4 (-7.6) 149.7 (+16.3) 21%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Dec 7, 2024 UNC 6865 GT
Jan 31, 2024 GT 7473 UNC
Dec 10, 2022 UNC 7559 GT
Jan 16, 2022 UNC 8865 GT
Dec 5, 2021 UNC 7962 GT

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings GT UNC
Overall 11-20 24-9
Conference 2-16 12-6
Home 10-9 18-0
Away 1-9 4-6
Neutral 0-2 2-3
Last 5 1-4 3-2
Streak L12 L3
Avg Pts For 73.8 79.7
Avg Pts Against 77.4 71.6
Massey 2.8 (#126) 16.5 (#27)
Bradley-Terry 0.07 (#160) 3.09 (#21)
W. Bradley-Terry -0.03 (#165) 3.73 (#25)
RPI 0.503 (#166) 0.641 (#15)
Shooting & Four Factors GT UNC
FG% 44.8% 48.2%
3PT% 35.8% 34.6%
REB / G 39.1 40.0
OREB / G 11.0 11.6
AST / TO 1.21 1.73
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 50.4% 55.6%
TOV% 18.9% 14.2%
ORB% 31.5% 33.9%
FT Rate 24.9% 27.7%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 46.9% 46.4%
Opp TOV% 15.6% 13.8%
DRB% 70.5% 72.0%
Opp FT Rate 23.1% 16.8%

Game Analysis

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