Betting Lines
| Spread | UNC -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 160.5 Over |
| Money | GT +410 UNC -550 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNC +16 | 166 | Lost |
| Massey | UNC -10.6 (-5.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.0 (+13.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 8% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 4% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNC -9.3 (-6.7) | 149.1 (+16.9) | 20% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNC -9.1 (-6.9) | 150.1 (+15.9) | 24% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNC -9.5 (-6.5) | 149.5 (+16.5) | 22% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNC -8.4 (-7.6) | 149.7 (+16.3) | 21% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 7, 2024 | UNC 68 – 65 GT |
| Jan 31, 2024 | GT 74 – 73 UNC |
| Dec 10, 2022 | UNC 75 – 59 GT |
| Jan 16, 2022 | UNC 88 – 65 GT |
| Dec 5, 2021 | UNC 79 – 62 GT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GT | UNC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-20 | 24-9 |
| Conference | 2-16 | 12-6 |
| Home | 10-9 | 18-0 |
| Away | 1-9 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L12 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.8 | 79.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.4 | 71.6 |
| Massey | 2.8 (#126) | 16.5 (#27) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.07 (#160) | 3.09 (#21) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.03 (#165) | 3.73 (#25) |
| RPI | 0.503 (#166) | 0.641 (#15) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GT | UNC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.8% | 48.2% |
| 3PT% | 35.8% | 34.6% |
| REB / G | 39.1 | 40.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 11.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.21 | 1.73 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.4% | 55.6% |
| TOV% | 18.9% | 14.2% |
| ORB% | 31.5% | 33.9% |
| FT Rate | 24.9% | 27.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.9% | 46.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.6% | 13.8% |
| DRB% | 70.5% | 72.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.1% | 16.8% |
Game Analysis
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