Hop in my Chrysler, it's as big as a whale and it's about to set sail. "Love Shack" - The B-52's
Atlantic Coast Conference · McCamish Pavilion · December 5, 2021
Betting Lines
Spread UNC -3.5 Away covered
O/U 149.5 Under
Money GT +145 / UNC -170
Model Predictions
Spread Total GT win
Actual UNC +17 141 Lost
Massey UNC -1.8 (-15.2)
Massey Totals 155.8 (-14.8)
Bradley-Terry 25%
Weighted B-T 22%
Efficiency Plus ML UNC -1.1 (-15.9) 146.6 (-5.6) 42%
Baseline Tuned ML UNC -1.0 (-16.0) 151.5 (-10.5) 47%
Baseline ML UNC -2.2 (-14.8) 151.1 (-10.1) 45%
Baseline Plus ML UNC -1.4 (-15.6) 151.7 (-10.7) 49%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Jan 31, 2026 UNC 9175 GT
Dec 7, 2024 UNC 6865 GT
Jan 31, 2024 GT 7473 UNC
Dec 10, 2022 UNC 7559 GT
Jan 16, 2022 UNC 8865 GT

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings GT UNC
Overall 12-20 29-10
Conference 5-15 15-5
Home 9-10 15-2
Away 3-8 8-3
Neutral 0-2 6-5
Last 5 4-1 3-2
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 67.5 77.9
Avg Pts Against 71.3 71.3
Massey 1.6 (#145) 9.0 (#43)
Bradley-Terry 0.13 (#177) 2.34 (#39)
W. Bradley-Terry 0.73 (#130) 3.30 (#38)
RPI 0.454 (#252) 0.651 (#20)
Shooting & Four Factors GT UNC
FG% 48.2% 48.3%
3PT% 40.7% 41.5%
REB / G 38.3 40.1
OREB / G 10.3 9.4
AST / TO 1.20 1.15
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 54.3% 55.6%
TOV% 18.7% 17.1%
ORB% 31.4% 28.1%
FT Rate 18.8% 24.2%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 47.8% 49.2%
Opp TOV% 17.6% 12.7%
DRB% 76.0% 78.2%
Opp FT Rate 19.2% 15.0%

Game Analysis

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