Betting Lines
| Spread | UNC -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Under |
| Money | GT +320 UNC -450 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GT +1 | 147 | Won |
| Massey | UNC -13.3 (+14.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.0 (-8.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 12% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 5% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNC -11.1 (+12.1) | 151.5 (-4.5) | 19% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNC -11.8 (+12.8) | 151.8 (-4.8) | 16% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UNC -11.5 (+12.5) | 152.6 (-5.6) | 18% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNC -10.4 (+11.4) | 153.4 (-6.4) | 17% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | UNC 91 – 75 GT |
| Dec 7, 2024 | UNC 68 – 65 GT |
| Dec 10, 2022 | UNC 75 – 59 GT |
| Jan 16, 2022 | UNC 88 – 65 GT |
| Dec 5, 2021 | UNC 79 – 62 GT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GT | UNC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-18 | 29-8 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 17-3 |
| Home | 8-7 | 14-1 |
| Away | 4-9 | 8-2 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 7-5 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.0 | 81.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.2 | 70.5 |
| Massey | 1.9 (#137) | 18.8 (#8) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.57 (#129) | 3.28 (#4) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.59 (#135) | 4.23 (#4) |
| RPI | 0.524 (#130) | 0.647 (#7) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GT | UNC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.8% | 45.6% |
| 3PT% | 32.2% | 35.7% |
| REB / G | 38.1 | 41.2 |
| OREB / G | 12.4 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.11 | 1.30 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.3% | 51.8% |
| TOV% | 17.4% | 14.8% |
| ORB% | 33.6% | 32.9% |
| FT Rate | 20.4% | 30.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.6% | 45.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.7% | 15.9% |
| DRB% | 69.9% | 75.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.0% | 20.8% |
Game Analysis
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