Betting Lines
| Spread | UNC -12.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Over |
| Money | UNC -1000 GT +650 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNC +23 | 153 | Won |
| Massey | UNC -14.0 (+9.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.8 (+6.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNC -11.9 (+11.1) | 146.0 (+7.0) | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNC -11.6 (+11.4) | 147.0 (+6.0) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNC -13.1 (+9.9) | 146.4 (+6.6) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNC -12.5 (+10.5) | 145.4 (+7.6) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | UNC 91 – 75 GT |
| Dec 7, 2024 | UNC 68 – 65 GT |
| Jan 31, 2024 | GT 74 – 73 UNC |
| Dec 10, 2022 | UNC 75 – 59 GT |
| Dec 5, 2021 | UNC 79 – 62 GT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNC | GT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-10 | 12-20 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 5-15 |
| Home | 15-2 | 9-10 |
| Away | 8-3 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 6-5 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.9 | 67.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.3 | 71.3 |
| Massey | 11.2 (#34) | 0.9 (#149) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.87 (#55) | -0.18 (#193) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.44 (#51) | 0.03 (#175) |
| RPI | 0.598 (#40) | 0.478 (#209) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNC | GT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.2% | 43.9% |
| 3PT% | 40.1% | 36.1% |
| REB / G | 39.7 | 35.9 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 9.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.21 | 0.95 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.0% | 49.9% |
| TOV% | 17.4% | 19.7% |
| ORB% | 29.1% | 27.8% |
| FT Rate | 22.7% | 18.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.0% | 48.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.7% | 18.6% |
| DRB% | 79.5% | 72.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 13.1% | 20.7% |
Game Analysis
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