Betting Lines
| Spread | UNC -18.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 162.5 Under |
| Money | UNC -1800 GT +900 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNC +3 | 133 | Won |
| Massey | UNC -17.9 (-14.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 171.5 (-38.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNC -11.6 (-8.6) | 158.7 (-25.7) | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNC -12.9 (-9.9) | 159.4 (-26.4) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNC -12.8 (-9.8) | 162.7 (-29.7) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNC -12.8 (-9.8) | 158.5 (-25.5) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | UNC 91 – 75 GT |
| Jan 31, 2024 | GT 74 – 73 UNC |
| Dec 10, 2022 | UNC 75 – 59 GT |
| Jan 16, 2022 | UNC 88 – 65 GT |
| Dec 5, 2021 | UNC 79 – 62 GT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNC | GT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-14 | 17-17 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 10-10 |
| Home | 12-3 | 14-6 |
| Away | 6-6 | 2-9 |
| Neutral | 5-5 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.7 | 73.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.7 | 72.7 |
| Massey | 13.8 (#29) | 0.7 (#151) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.60 (#65) | -0.93 (#255) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.43 (#65) | -1.49 (#259) |
| RPI | 0.639 (#22) | 0.435 (#283) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNC | GT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.9% | 43.9% |
| 3PT% | 34.6% | 32.0% |
| REB / G | 37.5 | 39.4 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 11.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.43 | 1.43 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.0% | 50.0% |
| TOV% | 13.0% | 14.5% |
| ORB% | 26.9% | 31.0% |
| FT Rate | 31.0% | 21.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.2% | 47.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.9% | 14.2% |
| DRB% | 72.5% | 74.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.1% | 28.4% |
Game Analysis
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