Betting Lines
| Spread | DUKE -13.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Under |
| Money | VT +675 DUKE -1050 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DUKE +14 | 130 | Lost |
| Massey | DUKE -13.6 (-0.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.8 (-22.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 9% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 2% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DUKE -12.1 (-1.9) | 148.6 (-18.6) | 15% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DUKE -11.7 (-2.3) | 144.1 (-14.1) | 16% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DUKE -11.8 (-2.2) | 144.4 (-14.4) | 16% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DUKE -11.3 (-2.7) | 147.8 (-17.8) | 15% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 31, 2024 | DUKE 88 – 65 VT |
| Jan 30, 2024 | DUKE 77 – 67 VT |
| Feb 26, 2023 | DUKE 81 – 65 VT |
| Jan 24, 2023 | VT 78 – 75 DUKE |
| Mar 13, 2022 | VT 82 – 67 DUKE |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VT | DUKE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-13 | 35-3 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 17-1 |
| Home | 14-3 | 15-0 |
| Away | 3-7 | 10-1 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 10-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.8 | 81.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.9 | 63.6 |
| Massey | 10.5 (#58) | 27.3 (#2) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.12 (#45) | 5.04 (#4) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.84 (#45) | 7.22 (#2) |
| RPI | 0.608 (#33) | 0.684 (#3) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VT | DUKE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.0% | 49.9% |
| 3PT% | 34.9% | 34.4% |
| REB / G | 36.2 | 40.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.5 | 12.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.40 | 1.52 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.8% | 57.7% |
| TOV% | 14.3% | 16.4% |
| ORB% | 32.1% | 37.8% |
| FT Rate | 27.8% | 30.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.3% | 45.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.6% | 19.6% |
| DRB% | 67.0% | 74.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.6% | 17.4% |
Game Analysis
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