Betting Lines
| Spread | DUKE -6.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 137.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DUKE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VT +15 | 149 | Lost |
| Massey | DUKE -5.6 (-20.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.3 (+11.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 80% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 88% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DUKE -2.9 (-17.9) | 137.9 (+11.1) | 63% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DUKE -3.3 (-18.3) | 137.8 (+11.2) | 59% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DUKE -4.2 (-19.2) | 143.6 (+5.4) | 70% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | DUKE -4.1 (-19.1) | 144.5 (+4.5) | 62% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | DUKE 72 – 58 VT |
| Dec 31, 2024 | DUKE 88 – 65 VT |
| Jan 30, 2024 | DUKE 77 – 67 VT |
| Feb 26, 2023 | DUKE 81 – 65 VT |
| Jan 24, 2023 | VT 78 – 75 DUKE |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DUKE | VT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 32-7 | 23-13 |
| Conference | 16-4 | 11-9 |
| Home | 15-3 | 11-4 |
| Away | 9-2 | 7-6 |
| Neutral | 8-2 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.1 | 70.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.8 | 62.8 |
| Massey | 17.7 (#10) | 12.0 (#25) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.97 (#15) | 1.60 (#62) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.00 (#7) | 2.04 (#59) |
| RPI | 0.608 (#17) | 0.558 (#64) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DUKE | VT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.9% | 47.0% |
| 3PT% | 37.3% | 39.1% |
| REB / G | 38.7 | 32.1 |
| OREB / G | 10.9 | 8.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.67 | 1.32 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.7% | 55.1% |
| TOV% | 14.9% | 17.1% |
| ORB% | 32.3% | 27.8% |
| FT Rate | 20.6% | 17.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.6% | 48.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.1% | 19.0% |
| DRB% | 71.7% | 73.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 12.7% | 18.4% |
Game Analysis
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