Betting Lines
| Spread | DUKE -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Over |
| Money | DUKE -300 VT +225 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DUKE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DUKE +16 | 146 | Won |
| Massey | DUKE -7.2 (+8.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.8 (+7.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DUKE -7.5 (+8.5) | 140.2 (+5.8) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DUKE -6.7 (+9.3) | 141.6 (+4.4) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DUKE -6.5 (+9.5) | 143.3 (+2.7) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DUKE -7.1 (+8.9) | 141.2 (+4.8) | 78% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | DUKE 72 – 58 VT |
| Dec 31, 2024 | DUKE 88 – 65 VT |
| Jan 30, 2024 | DUKE 77 – 67 VT |
| Jan 24, 2023 | VT 78 – 75 DUKE |
| Mar 13, 2022 | VT 82 – 67 DUKE |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DUKE | VT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-9 | 19-15 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 8-12 |
| Home | 16-0 | 13-4 |
| Away | 4-6 | 2-10 |
| Neutral | 7-3 | 4-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.0 | 74.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 63.6 | 70.1 |
| Massey | 11.4 (#32) | 7.8 (#77) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.23 (#23) | 1.25 (#73) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.66 (#27) | 1.68 (#69) |
| RPI | 0.600 (#22) | 0.549 (#88) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DUKE | VT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.3% | 47.4% |
| 3PT% | 33.5% | 35.4% |
| REB / G | 39.2 | 34.1 |
| OREB / G | 12.9 | 8.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.19 | 1.55 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.3% | 54.2% |
| TOV% | 18.9% | 15.0% |
| ORB% | 37.4% | 26.1% |
| FT Rate | 22.1% | 19.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.7% | 49.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.3% | 16.4% |
| DRB% | 74.0% | 72.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.3% | 18.6% |
Game Analysis
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