Betting Lines
| Spread | DUKE -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Under |
| Money | VT +145 DUKE -189 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DUKE +10 | 144 | Lost |
| Massey | DUKE -1.9 (-8.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.8 (-3.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 63% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 61% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DUKE -0.5 (-9.5) | 143.5 (+0.5) | 44% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VT -0.3 (-10.3) | 145.6 (-1.6) | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | VT -0.4 (-10.4) | 146.4 (-2.4) | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DUKE -0.6 (-9.4) | 145.3 (-1.3) | 48% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | DUKE 72 – 58 VT |
| Dec 31, 2024 | DUKE 88 – 65 VT |
| Feb 26, 2023 | DUKE 81 – 65 VT |
| Jan 24, 2023 | VT 78 – 75 DUKE |
| Mar 13, 2022 | VT 82 – 67 DUKE |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VT | DUKE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-15 | 27-9 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 15-5 |
| Home | 15-2 | 15-3 |
| Away | 2-10 | 7-4 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.9 | 78.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.0 | 66.3 |
| Massey | 9.7 (#52) | 15.2 (#15) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.85 (#47) | 1.98 (#40) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.34 (#44) | 2.63 (#34) |
| RPI | 0.588 (#46) | 0.580 (#53) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VT | DUKE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.6% | 47.9% |
| 3PT% | 36.6% | 38.1% |
| REB / G | 33.6 | 35.8 |
| OREB / G | 8.0 | 9.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.26 | 1.73 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.4% | 54.9% |
| TOV% | 18.1% | 13.2% |
| ORB% | 26.7% | 28.7% |
| FT Rate | 28.4% | 27.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.0% | 49.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.7% | 18.6% |
| DRB% | 73.8% | 75.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.3% | 19.6% |
Game Analysis
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