Betting Lines
| Spread | VT -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
| Money | VT -150 DUKE +115 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VT +3 | 153 | Won |
| Massey | VT -1.3 (+1.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.1 (+18.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 37% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 42% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VT -1.4 (+1.6) | 135.2 (+17.8) | 58% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VT -1.1 (+1.9) | 132.3 (+20.7) | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VT -1.4 (+1.6) | 136.4 (+16.6) | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VT -0.9 (+2.1) | 135.0 (+18.0) | 56% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | DUKE 72 – 58 VT |
| Dec 31, 2024 | DUKE 88 – 65 VT |
| Jan 30, 2024 | DUKE 77 – 67 VT |
| Feb 26, 2023 | DUKE 81 – 65 VT |
| Mar 13, 2022 | VT 82 – 67 DUKE |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VT | DUKE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-15 | 27-9 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 14-6 |
| Home | 13-4 | 16-0 |
| Away | 2-10 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 4-1 | 7-3 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.1 | 72.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.1 | 63.6 |
| Massey | 8.9 (#59) | 11.2 (#34) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.27 (#73) | 2.43 (#23) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.81 (#64) | 2.86 (#26) |
| RPI | 0.561 (#77) | 0.630 (#12) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VT | DUKE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.0% | 42.9% |
| 3PT% | 34.0% | 31.7% |
| REB / G | 35.7 | 40.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.1 | 13.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.45 | 1.13 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.4% | 48.6% |
| TOV% | 15.1% | 18.7% |
| ORB% | 26.9% | 38.8% |
| FT Rate | 17.6% | 24.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.1% | 46.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.3% | 18.0% |
| DRB% | 73.3% | 73.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.5% | 18.5% |
Game Analysis
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