Betting Lines
| Spread | DUKE -24.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Over |
| Money | DUKE -10000 VT +2500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DUKE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DUKE +23 | 153 | Won |
| Massey | DUKE -29.6 (-6.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 128.0 (+25.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DUKE -22.6 (+0.4) | 134.6 (+18.4) | 90% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DUKE -19.8 (+3.2) | 134.9 (+18.1) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DUKE -21.1 (+1.9) | 134.7 (+18.3) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DUKE -22.9 (+0.1) | 133.6 (+19.4) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | DUKE 72 – 58 VT |
| Jan 30, 2024 | DUKE 77 – 67 VT |
| Feb 26, 2023 | DUKE 81 – 65 VT |
| Jan 24, 2023 | VT 78 – 75 DUKE |
| Mar 13, 2022 | VT 82 – 67 DUKE |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DUKE | VT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 35-4 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 19-1 | 8-12 |
| Home | 17-0 | 8-9 |
| Away | 10-1 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 8-3 | 0-5 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.2 | 69.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 62.8 | 73.2 |
| Massey | 24.4 (#2) | -0.9 (#174) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.18 (#13) | -0.67 (#235) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.59 (#12) | -0.73 (#221) |
| RPI | 0.642 (#15) | 0.469 (#233) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DUKE | VT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.4% | 42.9% |
| 3PT% | 35.4% | 34.1% |
| REB / G | 40.0 | 35.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.8 | 11.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.55 | 0.94 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.9% | 49.9% |
| TOV% | 15.5% | 21.2% |
| ORB% | 34.4% | 35.4% |
| FT Rate | 21.8% | 24.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 41.2% | 51.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.9% | 18.8% |
| DRB% | 73.0% | 71.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.1% | 24.7% |
Game Analysis
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