We are not monsters, we're moral people / And yet we have the strength to do this. "Nemesis" - Shriekback
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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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85–46 on winners spread MAE 9.6 131 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Iona @ Manhattan +2.0 145.1 62% 55–76 ✓
Dayton @ Saint Louis +0.3 140.4 53% 71–63 ✗
Brown @ Pennsylvania +0.3 142.8 53% 88–79 ✗
Harvard @ Columbia +4.2 145.9 69% 90–82 ✗
Dartmouth @ Cornell +9.6 157.3 86% 64–76 ✓
Akron @ Kent State +0.0 142.8 50% 85–71 ✗
Fairfield @ Quinnipiac +12.9 142.6 88% 69–81 ✓
Mount St. Mary's @ Merrimack +7.5 130.0 79% 66–58 ✗
Saint Peter's @ Rider -1.2 124.0 45% 64–67 ✗
Niagara @ Canisius -2.5 138.3 37% 64–63 ✓
Indiana @ Purdue +12.9 146.5 88% 76–81 ✓
Siena @ Marist +4.1 131.1 69% 67–72 ✓
Florida @ Tennessee +2.3 133.5 62% 44–64 ✓
Providence @ St. John's +13.2 140.5 88% 66–68 ✓
Pittsburgh @ Wake Forest -1.3 135.9 45% 74–76 ✗
Washington @ Minnesota +2.8 136.7 67% 71–68 ✗
Fordham @ St. Bonaventure +10.9 139.2 86% 72–74 ✓
Missouri @ Mississippi State +3.6 150.0 68% 88–61 ✗
Arizona @ Arizona State -3.5 146.5 37% 81–72 ✓
Le Moyne @ Wagner +2.7 134.1 63% 61–73 ✓
UMass Lowell @ UMBC +1.0 162.4 58% 83–67 ✗
Creighton @ Villanova +0.2 142.9 46% 62–60 ✗
Georgia State @ App State +10.1 136.3 86% 76–80 ✓
Green Bay @ Detroit Mercy +4.5 139.0 69% 57–67 ✓
Hofstra @ Campbell +1.8 132.6 59% 52–75 ✓
West Georgia @ Queens University +10.1 147.6 85% 68–87 ✓
Stetson @ Florida Gulf Coast +13.7 147.0 88% 56–82 ✓
Samford @ The Citadel -14.9 143.1 13% 83–58 ✓
Eastern Michigan @ Western Michigan +1.3 147.1 59% 54–61 ✓
Clemson @ NC State -5.4 133.8 26% 68–58 ✓
Auburn @ Ole Miss -4.9 144.7 28% 92–82 ✓
Kansas State @ Iowa State +14.8 148.4 88% 80–61 ✗
Wisconsin @ Northwestern -2.3 145.2 40% 75–69 ✓
South Carolina Upstate @ Radford +11.9 149.2 88% 69–79 ✓
High Point @ Presbyterian -7.5 146.4 23% 84–72 ✓
Gardner-Webb @ Winthrop +4.0 157.5 70% 93–96 ✓
Longwood @ Charleston Southern -3.0 145.5 36% 85–89 ✗
Charlotte @ UAB +8.6 151.3 82% 78–96 ✓
East Carolina @ Temple +4.4 146.8 70% 94–98 ✓
Florida State @ Boston College -6.5 147.8 30% 76–77 ✗
Massachusetts @ Duquesne +3.8 144.7 70% 62–53 ✗
Drake @ Southern Illinois -5.1 131.3 26% 75–65 ✓
Bucknell @ Navy +1.9 141.4 61% 85–75 ✗
Lafayette @ Colgate +5.8 139.8 74% 76–61 ✗
Army @ American University +5.0 141.0 72% 68–71 ✓
Boston University @ Loyola Maryland +0.2 130.6 53% 67–69 ✓
Long Island University @ Chicago State -3.5 132.4 34% 67–73 ✗
Central Connecticut @ Stonehill -3.1 130.5 35% 71–63 ✓
Maine @ Vermont -3.3 126.3 36% 49–55 ✗
Bryant @ NJIT -9.2 142.0 17% 92–70 ✓
IU Indianapolis @ Youngstown State +8.8 146.3 82% 84–79 ✗
Delaware @ Monmouth +0.5 153.6 54% 83–92 ✓
South Dakota State @ North Dakota -8.3 155.4 20% 75–80 ✗
Mercer @ Chattanooga +6.2 150.6 77% 84–93 ✓
Northern Illinois @ Toledo +12.8 152.3 87% 85–89 ✓
Saint Joseph's @ Loyola Chicago -2.1 143.8 43% 55–58 ✗
George Washington @ La Salle +0.2 142.6 51% 67–73 ✓
Howard @ Hampton +2.9 147.6 60% 79–80 ✓
Utah @ Oklahoma State -1.9 144.8 44% 72–81 ✗
Murray State @ Missouri State -1.8 139.0 41% 56–77 ✗
Indiana State @ UIC +10.5 162.4 86% 88–83 ✗
Lamar @ Stephen F. Austin -0.7 128.5 44% 67–62 ✓
Eastern Washington @ Weber State +1.6 141.2 59% 72–49 ✗
Utah Tech @ UT Arlington +7.2 143.0 78% 71–73 ✓
UTEP @ Middle Tennessee +4.9 141.8 72% 68–71 ✓
New Mexico State @ Western Kentucky +2.7 137.5 64% 69–101 ✓
Northwestern State @ East Texas A&M -4.4 130.6 28% 50–72 ✗
Vanderbilt @ Oklahoma +2.7 149.9 62% 67–97 ✓
Prairie View A&M @ Texas Southern +8.2 150.9 81% 63–79 ✓
Michigan @ Rutgers -3.4 155.5 37% 66–63 ✓
Mercyhurst @ Fairleigh Dickinson +3.5 136.4 66% 67–60 ✗
VMI @ Western Carolina -5.8 139.3 26% 80–76 ✓
Ohio @ Miami (OH) +3.2 156.2 68% 69–73 ✓
Louisville @ Georgia Tech -7.9 146.7 20% 70–77 ✗
Georgia @ Alabama +10.2 156.0 84% 69–90 ✓
Kansas @ Baylor +2.4 147.1 58% 70–81 ✓
Fresno State @ Boise State +16.7 149.4 90% 60–82 ✓
BYU @ UCF -0.4 159.5 49% 81–75 ✓
Virginia Tech @ Virginia +3.5 127.6 66% 75–74 ✗
Richmond @ VCU +15.8 133.8 90% 49–90 ✓
George Mason @ Davidson -2.7 136.7 40% 64–60 ✓
Maryland Eastern Shore @ Morgan State +6.7 152.9 76% 63–76 ✓
Idaho @ Idaho State +3.8 143.6 67% 71–87 ✓
Northern Arizona @ Northern Colorado +6.6 145.5 78% 69–87 ✓
Old Dominion @ James Madison +10.5 135.6 87% 54–68 ✓
Coastal Carolina @ Marshall +9.9 140.4 85% 62–67 ✓
Northern Kentucky @ Oakland +6.2 129.5 74% 84–75 ✗
UC Davis @ UC Irvine +15.1 134.4 88% 66–73 ✓
Austin Peay @ Eastern Kentucky +5.6 146.0 74% 82–88 ✓
Sam Houston @ Louisiana Tech +6.8 146.2 79% 61–66 ✓
Michigan State @ USC -4.4 148.5 31% 64–70 ✗
South Carolina State @ Norfolk State +8.3 144.2 82% 65–67 ✓
Delaware State @ Coppin State -6.0 140.7 26% 84–61 ✓
Lehigh @ Holy Cross +2.0 136.7 59% 69–67 ✗
McNeese @ Nicholls -6.5 141.0 25% 63–71 ✗
New Orleans @ SE Louisiana +11.4 140.3 87% 68–76 ✓
Georgia Southern @ Southern Miss +1.7 147.1 60% 68–72 ✓
UL Monroe @ Troy +13.7 133.6 88% 50–87 ✓
Tennessee Tech @ Southern Indiana +0.2 143.1 51% 78–65 ✗
SIU Edwardsville @ Western Illinois -6.2 131.1 24% 69–65 ✓
Eastern Illinois @ Lindenwood +2.3 133.9 59% 76–70 ✗
Tennessee State @ Southeast Missouri State +4.8 147.6 71% 87–89 ✓
Valparaiso @ Illinois State +7.7 144.8 80% 78–86 ✓
Air Force @ San José State +8.9 134.9 82% 64–75 ✓
Brown @ Princeton +6.2 143.5 75% 49–69 ✓
Arkansas State @ Texas State -3.3 147.4 35% 85–74 ✓
Bellarmine @ Lipscomb +19.4 144.5 91% 80–87 ✓
Ball State @ Buffalo -1.2 147.9 44% 89–76 ✓
Liberty @ Jacksonville State -0.9 135.2 47% 61–72 ✗
Florida International @ Kennesaw State +6.3 142.1 77% 67–73 ✓
Jackson State @ Grambling +0.0 137.2 54% 65–50 ✗
Alabama State @ Bethune-Cookman +3.7 139.3 68% 64–67 ✓
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi @ UT Rio Grande Valley -1.3 146.2 46% 73–83 ✗
Texas Tech @ Houston +9.9 128.6 80% 82–81 ✗
UTSA @ North Texas +13.0 135.9 88% 54–50 ✗
Stanford @ SMU +6.5 148.4 75% 61–85 ✓
Harvard @ Cornell +10.2 150.9 87% 60–75 ✓
Yale @ Pennsylvania -11.8 147.9 15% 90–61 ✓
Alcorn State @ Southern +11.6 131.9 87% 69–74 ✓
Dartmouth @ Columbia +4.9 152.1 69% 95–89 ✗
Sacramento State @ Montana +10.0 140.0 84% 59–87 ✓
Houston Christian @ Incarnate Word +0.7 139.8 57% 64–74 ✓
Drexel @ Towson +4.8 128.9 72% 54–55 ✓
North Florida @ Jacksonville +8.8 156.6 80% 81–78 ✗
Texas @ LSU +0.9 143.6 55% 89–58 ✗
Loyola Marymount @ San Diego -5.9 138.7 25% 78–62 ✓
Wofford @ UNC Greensboro +4.7 132.8 72% 74–62 ✗
UT Martin @ Little Rock +5.5 133.4 72% 57–75 ✓
North Carolina @ Duke +13.5 149.8 88% 70–87 ✓
Mississippi Valley State @ Arkansas-Pine Bluff +8.6 142.4 80% 79–76 ✗
Alabama A&M @ Florida A&M +7.0 146.9 78% 79–95 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.