I just keep on rolling along with the grace of the Lord above. "Heartbreaker" - Led Zeppelin
← All models

Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

← Prev day Next day →
89–35 on winners spread MAE 9.5 124 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Wichita State @ Temple +1.6 147.5 58% 85–91 ✓
Iowa @ Wisconsin +5.3 163.6 68% 85–116 ✓
Stonehill @ Mercyhurst -2.9 134.9 36% 69–76 ✗
Le Moyne @ Long Island University +2.5 141.4 64% 62–78 ✓
Chicago State @ Wagner +8.1 127.3 80% 64–52 ✗
Central Connecticut @ Saint Francis -5.7 138.6 28% 74–59 ✓
Marist @ Iona -2.4 133.7 34% 70–65 ✓
Manhattan @ Siena +2.3 142.3 61% 95–103 ✓
Quinnipiac @ Saint Peter's +3.0 132.4 66% 59–46 ✗
Michigan State @ Ohio State +4.3 147.2 67% 69–62 ✗
Xavier @ Georgetown +1.8 144.0 60% 63–69 ✓
Creighton @ Marquette +11.9 145.6 87% 71–79 ✓
Saint Joseph's @ Saint Louis +0.4 146.2 54% 57–73 ✓
Nevada @ New Mexico +4.5 148.8 73% 81–82 ✓
Florida @ Kentucky +2.8 163.5 58% 100–106 ✓
Georgia @ Ole Miss +3.8 141.0 66% 51–63 ✓
Oklahoma State @ West Virginia +13.8 137.8 88% 50–69 ✓
Boston College @ Georgia Tech +7.8 144.9 78% 64–85 ✓
NC State @ Wake Forest +2.2 131.5 64% 59–77 ✓
North Carolina @ Notre Dame -2.5 156.0 36% 74–73 ✓
Richmond @ Massachusetts +4.2 146.6 67% 72–64 ✗
Dayton @ George Washington -4.7 142.5 28% 62–82 ✗
DePaul @ Villanova +6.8 149.9 76% 56–100 ✓
William & Mary @ Stony Brook -4.0 152.0 34% 83–76 ✓
Hofstra @ Northeastern +4.4 133.6 68% 55–37 ✗
Toledo @ Western Michigan +0.0 146.9 50% 76–70 ✗
Arkansas @ Tennessee +12.7 135.8 83% 52–76 ✓
Vermont @ New Hampshire -6.7 128.0 22% 60–40 ✓
Texas State @ App State -1.3 131.7 45% 61–72 ✗
Milwaukee @ Detroit Mercy -6.0 143.8 29% 64–56 ✓
Green Bay @ Northern Kentucky +10.2 140.9 84% 60–78 ✓
Florida Gulf Coast @ Queens University -2.2 141.7 41% 83–92 ✗
Chattanooga @ The Citadel -9.9 140.1 17% 81–68 ✓
Buffalo @ Miami (OH) +10.8 147.4 88% 79–93 ✓
Baylor @ Iowa State +7.0 154.6 75% 55–74 ✓
BYU @ Houston +10.7 130.6 78% 55–86 ✓
UCLA @ Nebraska +1.3 131.4 55% 58–66 ✓
South Carolina @ Mississippi State +12.7 143.4 87% 50–85 ✓
High Point @ UNC Asheville +0.0 149.0 51% 99–103 ✓
Presbyterian @ Gardner-Webb +3.0 144.8 66% 61–63 ✓
Charlotte @ Rice +6.8 138.8 77% 55–68 ✓
Tulsa @ UAB +10.8 155.3 83% 51–83 ✓
Miami @ Virginia Tech +2.3 145.7 59% 85–86 ✓
VCU @ Loyola Chicago -5.3 137.9 35% 84–65 ✓
St. Bonaventure @ Fordham -8.4 137.5 20% 86–66 ✓
Duquesne @ Davidson +6.4 133.0 76% 71–77 ✓
George Mason @ Rhode Island +1.9 140.3 63% 59–62 ✓
Indiana State @ Evansville -2.5 145.4 40% 66–62 ✓
Stetson @ West Georgia +7.3 143.6 76% 78–62 ✗
Bellarmine @ Central Arkansas +5.4 146.8 72% 65–71 ✓
Maine @ Bryant +1.1 147.6 57% 55–81 ✓
UMBC @ Binghamton +1.5 146.8 58% 82–87 ✓
Butler @ St. John's +11.5 146.1 85% 62–70 ✓
UL Monroe @ Coastal Carolina +6.8 134.6 76% 51–70 ✓
Towson @ Charleston +8.2 139.0 81% 69–77 ✓
Drexel @ North Carolina A&T -4.1 140.7 30% 68–59 ✓
Lipscomb @ North Florida -5.9 151.9 31% 96–64 ✓
St. Thomas-Minnesota @ North Dakota -8.2 156.8 19% 88–80 ✓
Omaha @ North Dakota State +13.7 149.9 88% 85–80 ✗
Northern Illinois @ Eastern Michigan +8.2 145.6 81% 71–75 ✓
Ball State @ Kent State +8.8 131.6 81% 75–67 ✗
Western Kentucky @ Florida International -2.9 145.7 38% 66–85 ✗
Duke @ SMU -4.4 145.0 32% 89–62 ✓
Arizona @ Cincinnati +1.7 140.0 60% 72–67 ✗
Jackson State @ Alcorn State +0.7 137.6 50% 72–69 ✗
South Alabama @ Georgia Southern -5.3 139.3 31% 76–47 ✓
Robert Morris @ Oakland +3.8 140.1 68% 79–71 ✗
IU Indianapolis @ Cleveland State +9.0 142.4 82% 61–67 ✓
Austin Peay @ Jacksonville +5.3 134.1 70% 44–68 ✓
Samford @ Western Carolina -14.1 156.6 14% 88–69 ✓
McNeese @ East Texas A&M -13.9 133.6 14% 75–56 ✓
Missouri @ Auburn +16.0 156.8 88% 68–84 ✓
Kansas State @ TCU +6.2 142.1 76% 62–63 ✓
Louisville @ Virginia -2.8 128.6 37% 70–50 ✓
Maryland Eastern Shore @ Norfolk State +14.8 140.4 90% 59–81 ✓
Northern Iowa @ Valparaiso -3.5 148.3 38% 73–80 ✗
San Diego State @ Boise State +2.0 134.0 59% 76–68 ✗
Mississippi Valley State @ Alabama State +18.9 142.7 90% 55–84 ✓
UMass Lowell @ UAlbany +0.5 158.7 50% 73–69 ✗
Weber State @ Northern Arizona +3.1 143.9 67% 77–80 ✓
Portland State @ Sacramento State -4.8 134.0 32% 53–56 ✗
Idaho State @ Northern Colorado +5.4 147.5 74% 92–93 ✓
Southern Miss @ Old Dominion -0.2 140.9 53% 71–74 ✗
Troy @ Marshall -1.2 137.4 44% 58–57 ✓
Arkansas State @ James Madison -0.3 144.9 47% 62–67 ✗
Monmouth @ Delaware +4.7 152.2 68% 64–84 ✓
Abilene Christian @ Utah Valley +7.9 134.9 81% 53–64 ✓
Furman @ UNC Greensboro -0.7 134.0 45% 67–84 ✗
Wofford @ East Tennessee State +4.8 140.2 71% 81–78 ✗
Louisiana Tech @ New Mexico State -1.1 138.3 46% 48–78 ✗
Morehead State @ Tennessee Tech +3.7 141.6 65% 55–74 ✓
Winthrop @ Radford +2.8 148.2 61% 67–87 ✓
South Carolina State @ Morgan State -8.3 147.0 20% 86–72 ✓
North Carolina Central @ Coppin State -5.1 135.1 31% 61–63 ✗
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi @ SE Louisiana +0.7 136.1 55% 80–71 ✗
Mercer @ VMI +0.3 151.3 50% 70–67 ✗
Southeast Missouri State @ UT Martin +1.2 138.5 59% 63–66 ✓
Little Rock @ Tennessee State -3.9 135.4 31% 86–95 ✗
Lindenwood @ SIU Edwardsville +7.1 138.5 77% 47–58 ✓
Western Illinois @ Eastern Illinois +3.8 139.0 65% 75–67 ✗
Nicholls @ Northwestern State +3.6 136.7 65% 66–68 ✓
Vanderbilt @ LSU +3.0 154.8 62% 80–72 ✗
UIC @ Belmont +2.4 155.0 64% 87–92 ✓
Wyoming @ Air Force -4.7 131.2 30% 70–65 ✓
Arkansas-Pine Bluff @ Alabama A&M +5.6 160.6 72% 79–89 ✓
Montana @ Idaho +1.3 148.7 56% 73–71 ✗
Montana State @ Eastern Washington -0.4 146.7 49% 63–68 ✗
Jacksonville State @ Kennesaw State +0.2 150.4 52% 71–83 ✓
Grambling @ Prairie View A&M +1.7 145.5 54% 55–73 ✓
Eastern Kentucky @ North Alabama +5.4 149.1 75% 67–88 ✓
Oklahoma @ Alabama +12.2 163.9 80% 79–107 ✓
Colorado @ Arizona State +6.7 139.4 72% 61–81 ✓
UTSA @ Tulane +4.7 147.4 69% 63–92 ✓
Syracuse @ Florida State +10.2 154.0 84% 74–90 ✓
San José State @ UNLV +8.8 141.7 83% 73–79 ✓
Southern @ Texas Southern -2.7 137.4 40% 67–58 ✓
UT Rio Grande Valley @ New Orleans -6.7 156.1 29% 76–64 ✓
Incarnate Word @ Stephen F. Austin +2.9 129.1 64% 55–49 ✗
UC Davis @ Cal State Northridge +11.1 143.3 86% 61–73 ✓
San Diego @ Oregon State +15.2 140.6 89% 54–81 ✓
Oral Roberts @ Kansas City +8.5 138.1 81% 67–90 ✓
Middle Tennessee @ Liberty +8.5 138.0 80% 63–73 ✓
Stanford @ Pittsburgh +14.5 150.6 88% 68–83 ✓
Bethune-Cookman @ Florida A&M -4.3 140.0 34% 62–55 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.