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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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44–18 on winners spread MAE 8.9 62 games

Matchup	Spread	Total	Home win	Result	Pick
Memphis @ Florida Atlantic	-3.8	159.8	39%	90–62	✓
Radford @ High Point	+5.0	141.0	71%	58–76	✓
Army @ Colgate	+1.7	146.3	60%	59–71	✓
Boston University @ Lafayette	+0.6	133.1	51%	46–60	✓
Bucknell @ Lehigh	+2.8	142.8	65%	64–66	✓
American University @ Navy	-0.1	142.4	46%	58–81	✗
Northwestern @ Penn State	+6.3	144.3	71%	80–84	✓
Southern Miss @ James Madison	+10.4	138.2	86%	72–83	✓
South Alabama @ Georgia State	-8.0	135.6	22%	77–51	✓
UL Monroe @ Georgia Southern	+8.2	150.0	79%	82–90	✓
Texas State @ Marshall	-0.5	140.6	46%	71–77	✗
Louisiana @ Coastal Carolina	+5.5	137.1	74%	71–68	✗
Arkansas State @ Old Dominion	-13.3	148.6	14%	78–59	✓
Robert Morris @ Detroit Mercy	-0.8	141.8	47%	76–78	✗
Milwaukee @ Oakland	-1.6	144.7	43%	49–65	✗
Green Bay @ Wright State	+10.2	151.9	84%	51–74	✓
Elon @ North Carolina A&T	-8.3	146.1	22%	75–67	✓
Hampton @ Charleston	+5.3	144.9	74%	67–94	✓
William & Mary @ Hofstra	+5.1	145.2	72%	74–56	✗
Towson @ UNC Wilmington	+7.6	135.1	80%	65–61	✗
Delaware @ Northeastern	+5.5	149.3	73%	77–80	✓
Drexel @ Campbell	-2.7	134.0	36%	54–57	✗
Stony Brook @ Monmouth	+3.7	141.3	66%	56–78	✓
Stetson @ Queens University	+10.3	148.7	88%	87–96	✓
Bellarmine @ North Alabama	+16.0	149.8	89%	66–82	✓
Lipscomb @ Jacksonville	-3.2	138.0	33%	70–65	✓
Florida Gulf Coast @ West Georgia	-8.2	136.3	25%	79–68	✓
Middle Tennessee @ Florida International	-2.3	144.5	39%	73–69	✓
Western Kentucky @ Liberty	+10.4	140.2	84%	71–70	✗
Purdue @ Minnesota	-6.4	136.7	23%	81–61	✓
Illinois State @ Murray State	+3.2	145.2	65%	74–68	✗
Idaho State @ Northern Arizona	+1.1	141.9	59%	72–67	✗
Weber State @ Northern Colorado	+7.6	150.2	79%	72–89	✓
UC Irvine @ Cal Poly	-8.6	152.1	24%	98–89	✓
St. Thomas-Minnesota @ North Dakota State	+5.9	153.5	72%	89–85	✗
South Dakota @ Kansas City	+2.4	151.5	61%	54–68	✓
Omaha @ North Dakota	+1.9	148.2	62%	95–85	✗
Rutgers @ Indiana	+6.5	152.2	76%	74–84	✓
Eastern Kentucky @ Central Arkansas	-6.1	145.8	33%	89–83	✓
Southern Indiana @ Tennessee Tech	+4.5	142.7	68%	64–68	✓
Southeast Missouri State @ Tennessee State	-3.9	147.1	32%	67–65	✓
Little Rock @ UT Martin	+0.4	130.6	55%	57–56	✗
Lindenwood @ Eastern Illinois	+1.5	138.4	62%	74–78	✓
Portland @ Gonzaga	+22.1	157.6	91%	50–81	✓
Montana State @ Idaho	+0.6	148.4	56%	64–69	✓
Montana @ Eastern Washington	-0.3	149.5	51%	92–81	✓
Denver @ South Dakota State	+12.8	150.2	87%	70–91	✓
Western Illinois @ SIU Edwardsville	+5.9	133.8	74%	66–77	✓
Louisiana Tech @ UTEP	+1.0	140.3	57%	60–70	✓
Sam Houston @ New Mexico State	+1.4	152.0	61%	71–75	✓
Maryland @ Washington	-7.9	143.3	23%	69–75	✗
UC Davis @ Cal State Bakersfield	+1.1	135.3	58%	64–75	✓
Illinois @ Oregon	+3.4	149.9	66%	109–77	✗
Cal State Northridge @ Cal State Fullerton	-7.3	140.6	28%	95–65	✓
UC Riverside @ Long Beach State	-3.9	138.5	38%	76–60	✓
Pepperdine @ Saint Mary's	+11.7	141.6	87%	41–71	✓
Santa Clara @ San Diego	-11.5	148.2	14%	81–80	✓
San Francisco @ Pacific	-11.1	139.3	15%	89–81	✓
Oregon State @ Loyola Marymount	-5.0	136.2	31%	61–82	✗
UC Santa Barbara @ Hawai'i	+1.9	134.8	59%	64–61	✗
Fairfield @ Merrimack	+9.0	135.3	83%	54–67	✓
Akron @ Bowling Green	-3.8	152.5	38%	71–68	✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.