Betting Lines
| Spread | KC -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Under |
| Money | KC -195 SDAK +165 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | KC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | KC +14 | 122 | Won |
| Massey | KC -1.6 (+12.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 161.9 (-39.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 63% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | KC -2.7 (+11.3) | 152.3 (-30.3) | 61% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | KC -3.5 (+10.5) | 152.8 (-30.8) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | KC -2.4 (+11.6) | 151.5 (-29.5) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | KC -2.2 (+11.8) | 151.1 (-29.1) | 63% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 5, 2026 | SDAK 82 – 75 KC |
| Jan 16, 2026 | SDAK 99 – 83 KC |
| Feb 14, 2025 | SDAK 79 – 72 KC |
| Feb 23, 2024 | KC 82 – 78 SDAK |
| Jan 28, 2024 | KC 81 – 57 SDAK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | KC | SDAK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-20 | 19-14 |
| Conference | 4-12 | 9-7 |
| Home | 9-5 | 14-2 |
| Away | 2-12 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.7 | 84.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.3 | 86.6 |
| Massey | -4.4 (#245) | -1.9 (#194) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.86 (#252) | -0.64 (#227) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.86 (#228) | -1.26 (#259) |
| RPI | 0.455 (#257) | 0.466 (#236) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | KC | SDAK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.5% | 44.8% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 31.1% |
| REB / G | 31.2 | 36.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 13.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.89 | 1.24 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.3% | 50.5% |
| TOV% | 19.8% | 13.5% |
| ORB% | 30.1% | 33.4% |
| FT Rate | 25.5% | 30.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.5% | 54.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.3% | 17.1% |
| DRB% | 68.5% | 62.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.5% | 21.9% |
Game Analysis
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