Betting Lines
| Spread | MRMK -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Under |
| Money | MRMK -360 FAIR +280 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MRMK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MRMK +13 | 121 | Won |
| Massey | MRMK -12.1 (+0.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.5 (-15.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MRMK -7.9 (+5.1) | 135.2 (-14.2) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MRMK -9.0 (+4.0) | 135.3 (-14.3) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MRMK -9.0 (+4.0) | 134.0 (-13.0) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MRMK -8.6 (+4.4) | 134.6 (-13.6) | 81% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 7, 2025 | MRMK 74 – 63 FAIR |
| Jan 26, 2025 | MRMK 75 – 54 FAIR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MRMK | FAIR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-15 | 12-20 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 8-12 |
| Home | 8-5 | 8-6 |
| Away | 9-8 | 3-12 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.6 | 66.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 64.2 | 73.5 |
| Massey | -1.8 (#192) | -9.8 (#323) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.12 (#184) | -1.33 (#291) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.16 (#175) | -2.25 (#308) |
| RPI | 0.507 (#153) | 0.433 (#294) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MRMK | FAIR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.7% | 40.5% |
| 3PT% | 32.1% | 32.0% |
| REB / G | 28.9 | 32.8 |
| OREB / G | 6.8 | 13.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.05 | 1.38 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.2% | 46.4% |
| TOV% | 15.6% | 14.6% |
| ORB% | 20.6% | 33.1% |
| FT Rate | 19.5% | 17.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.3% | 56.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.2% | 17.6% |
| DRB% | 62.8% | 67.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.5% | 26.3% |
Game Analysis
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