Betting Lines
| Spread | MRMK -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 130.5 Under |
| Money | FAIR +150 MRMK -175 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FAIR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MRMK +21 | 129 | Lost |
| Massey | MRMK -6.0 (-15.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.7 (-3.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 32% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 20% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MRMK -3.6 (-17.4) | 130.5 (-1.5) | 32% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MRMK -5.4 (-15.6) | 130.7 (-1.7) | 28% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MRMK -5.1 (-15.9) | 130.2 (-1.2) | 28% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MRMK -4.9 (-16.1) | 131.5 (-2.5) | 30% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 7, 2025 | MRMK 74 – 63 FAIR |
| Jan 3, 2025 | MRMK 67 – 54 FAIR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FAIR | MRMK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 14-6 |
| Home | 8-6 | 8-5 |
| Away | 3-12 | 9-8 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.7 | 65.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.5 | 64.2 |
| Massey | -10.9 (#328) | -1.6 (#186) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.22 (#276) | 0.15 (#169) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.06 (#309) | 0.04 (#171) |
| RPI | 0.442 (#278) | 0.529 (#127) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FAIR | MRMK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.1% | 42.3% |
| 3PT% | 31.9% | 34.1% |
| REB / G | 33.4 | 28.1 |
| OREB / G | 12.7 | 6.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.22 | 1.17 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.3% | 49.4% |
| TOV% | 15.7% | 15.2% |
| ORB% | 33.0% | 20.0% |
| FT Rate | 18.8% | 17.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.6% | 46.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.6% | 21.5% |
| DRB% | 69.4% | 61.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.4% | 22.2% |
Game Analysis
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