Let fury have the hour / Anger can be power. "Clampdown" - The Clash
Fairfield Stags
54 75
FINAL Conference
Merrimack Warriors
Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference · Leo D. Mahoney Arena · January 26, 2025
Betting Lines
Spread MRMK -4.5 Away covered
O/U 130.5 Under
Money FAIR +150 / MRMK -175
Model Predictions
Spread Total FAIR win
Actual MRMK +21 129 Lost
Massey MRMK -6.0 (-15.0)
Massey Totals 132.7 (-3.7)
Bradley-Terry 32%
Weighted B-T 20%
Efficiency Plus ML MRMK -3.6 (-17.4) 130.5 (-1.5) 32%
Baseline Tuned ML MRMK -5.4 (-15.6) 130.7 (-1.7) 28%
Baseline ML MRMK -5.1 (-15.9) 130.2 (-1.2) 28%
Baseline Plus ML MRMK -4.9 (-16.1) 131.5 (-2.5) 30%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Dec 7, 2025 MRMK 7463 FAIR
Jan 3, 2025 MRMK 6754 FAIR

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings FAIR MRMK
Overall 12-20 18-15
Conference 8-12 14-6
Home 8-6 8-5
Away 3-12 9-8
Neutral 1-2 1-2
Last 5 3-2 4-1
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 66.7 65.6
Avg Pts Against 73.5 64.2
Massey -10.9 (#328) -1.6 (#186)
Bradley-Terry -1.22 (#276) 0.15 (#169)
W. Bradley-Terry -2.06 (#309) 0.04 (#171)
RPI 0.442 (#278) 0.529 (#127)
Shooting & Four Factors FAIR MRMK
FG% 40.1% 42.3%
3PT% 31.9% 34.1%
REB / G 33.4 28.1
OREB / G 12.7 6.6
AST / TO 1.22 1.17
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 46.3% 49.4%
TOV% 15.7% 15.2%
ORB% 33.0% 20.0%
FT Rate 18.8% 17.8%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 55.6% 46.9%
Opp TOV% 17.6% 21.5%
DRB% 69.4% 61.3%
Opp FT Rate 24.4% 22.2%

Game Analysis

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