Betting Lines
| Spread | ORE -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 155.5 Over |
| Money | ORE -190 ILL +160 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ORE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ILL +32 | 186 | Lost |
| Massey | ORE -0.5 (-32.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.3 (+30.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 92% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ORE -2.0 (-34.0) | 158.3 (+27.7) | 59% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ORE -3.4 (-35.4) | 149.9 (+36.1) | 66% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ORE -3.1 (-35.1) | 150.4 (+35.6) | 63% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ORE -1.9 (-33.9) | 154.6 (+31.4) | 69% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 4, 2026 | ILL 80 – 54 ORE |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ORE | ILL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-10 | 22-13 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 12-8 |
| Home | 12-4 | 13-4 |
| Away | 7-4 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 6-2 | 4-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.5 | 83.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.9 | 74.8 |
| Massey | 16.5 (#20) | 20.1 (#7) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.98 (#6) | 2.55 (#32) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 5.45 (#6) | 3.80 (#22) |
| RPI | 0.687 (#4) | 0.577 (#58) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ORE | ILL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.5% | 44.9% |
| 3PT% | 34.1% | 33.4% |
| REB / G | 38.5 | 45.4 |
| OREB / G | 11.4 | 13.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.35 | 1.33 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.0% | 53.4% |
| TOV% | 16.4% | 15.8% |
| ORB% | 34.3% | 36.6% |
| FT Rate | 29.5% | 30.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.2% | 41.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.5% | 14.5% |
| DRB% | 70.0% | 75.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.6% | 18.4% |
Game Analysis
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