You just want to be on the side that's winning. "Positively 4th Street" - Bob Dylan
Oregon Ducks
77 109
FINAL Conference
Illinois Fighting Illini
Big Ten Conference · Matthew Knight Arena · January 3, 2025
Betting Lines
Spread ORE -4.5 Away covered
O/U 155.5 Over
Money ORE -190 / ILL +160
Model Predictions
Spread Total ORE win
Actual ILL +32 186 Lost
Massey ORE -0.5 (-32.5)
Massey Totals 155.3 (+30.7)
Bradley-Terry 90%
Weighted B-T 92%
Efficiency Plus ML ORE -2.0 (-34.0) 158.3 (+27.7) 59%
Baseline Tuned ML ORE -3.4 (-35.4) 149.9 (+36.1) 66%
Baseline ML ORE -3.1 (-35.1) 150.4 (+35.6) 63%
Baseline Plus ML ORE -1.9 (-33.9) 154.6 (+31.4) 69%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Mar 4, 2026 ILL 8054 ORE

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings ORE ILL
Overall 25-10 22-13
Conference 12-8 12-8
Home 12-4 13-4
Away 7-4 5-5
Neutral 6-2 4-4
Last 5 4-1 3-2
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 76.5 83.6
Avg Pts Against 70.9 74.8
Massey 16.5 (#20) 20.1 (#7)
Bradley-Terry 3.98 (#6) 2.55 (#32)
W. Bradley-Terry 5.45 (#6) 3.80 (#22)
RPI 0.687 (#4) 0.577 (#58)
Shooting & Four Factors ORE ILL
FG% 46.5% 44.9%
3PT% 34.1% 33.4%
REB / G 38.5 45.4
OREB / G 11.4 13.1
AST / TO 1.35 1.33
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 53.0% 53.4%
TOV% 16.4% 15.8%
ORB% 34.3% 36.6%
FT Rate 29.5% 30.1%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 45.2% 41.8%
Opp TOV% 19.5% 14.5%
DRB% 70.0% 75.8%
Opp FT Rate 17.6% 18.4%

Game Analysis

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