Betting Lines
| Spread | ILL -17.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Under |
| Money | ILL -2400 ORE +1200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ILL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ILL +26 | 134 | Won |
| Massey | ILL -20.4 (+5.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.2 (-15.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ILL -16.2 (+9.8) | 150.2 (-16.2) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ILL -16.3 (+9.7) | 146.6 (-12.6) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ILL -17.8 (+8.2) | 147.1 (-13.1) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ILL -18.3 (+7.7) | 146.4 (-12.4) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 3, 2025 | ILL 109 – 77 ORE |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ILL | ORE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-9 | 12-20 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 5-15 |
| Home | 14-3 | 10-7 |
| Away | 8-2 | 2-8 |
| Neutral | 6-4 | 0-5 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.2 | 70.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.8 | 73.9 |
| Massey | 23.6 (#5) | 6.2 (#91) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.47 (#15) | 0.71 (#102) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.73 (#8) | 0.95 (#100) |
| RPI | 0.631 (#13) | 0.506 (#172) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ILL | ORE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.3% | 42.8% |
| 3PT% | 35.5% | 32.6% |
| REB / G | 40.8 | 34.8 |
| OREB / G | 13.3 | 11.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.61 | 1.17 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.4% | 49.8% |
| TOV% | 13.6% | 18.1% |
| ORB% | 39.3% | 33.4% |
| FT Rate | 26.5% | 25.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.7% | 51.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 11.7% | 16.1% |
| DRB% | 73.1% | 68.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 14.3% | 25.5% |
Game Analysis
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