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Baseline Tuned — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
7–3 on winners
spread MAE 6.5
10 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Bradley
@
Indiana State
|
-4.2 | 156.6 | 31% | 90–89 | ✓ |
The Citadel
@
Samford
|
+18.0 | 153.9 | 91% | 56–86 | ✓ |
Valparaiso
@
Missouri State
|
+2.8 | 145.6 | 65% | 73–72 | ✗ |
Belmont
@
Northern Iowa
|
+9.0 | 153.7 | 82% | 70–76 | ✓ |
Gardner-Webb
@
Charleston Southern
|
-0.2 | 148.3 | 50% | 63–72 | ✗ |
Longwood
@
Presbyterian
|
+1.2 | 143.3 | 55% | 60–68 | ✓ |
Austin Peay
@
North Florida
|
+6.3 | 147.3 | 78% | 97–89 | ✗ |
South Carolina Upstate
@
Winthrop
|
+11.7 | 156.6 | 87% | 76–95 | ✓ |
Loyola Maryland
@
Holy Cross
|
+2.6 | 139.1 | 66% | 72–74 | ✓ |
Troy
@
App State
|
-3.0 | 131.3 | 39% | 69–61 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.