Betting Lines
| Spread | NMSU -0.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Under |
| Money | NMSU -110 SHSU -110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NMSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NMSU +4 | 146 | Won |
| Massey | NMSU -2.8 (+1.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.7 (-11.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 52% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 46% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NMSU -0.8 (+3.2) | 151.5 (-5.5) | 59% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SHSU -0.1 (+4.1) | 148.1 (-2.1) | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NMSU -1.4 (+2.6) | 152.0 (-6.0) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NMSU -1.6 (+2.4) | 152.4 (-6.4) | 60% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 12, 2026 | SHSU 69 – 61 NMSU |
| Dec 21, 2025 | NMSU 87 – 78 SHSU |
| Mar 8, 2025 | SHSU 76 – 69 NMSU |
| Feb 23, 2024 | SHSU 79 – 58 NMSU |
| Jan 26, 2024 | SHSU 79 – 67 NMSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NMSU | SHSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-15 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 6-12 |
| Home | 9-6 | 9-4 |
| Away | 8-6 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.7 | 72.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.3 | 77.1 |
| Massey | -2.8 (#210) | -1.4 (#186) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.83 (#249) | -0.16 (#187) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.97 (#241) | 0.03 (#161) |
| RPI | 0.476 (#209) | 0.498 (#169) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NMSU | SHSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.9% | 45.2% |
| 3PT% | 32.9% | 39.3% |
| REB / G | 38.6 | 32.7 |
| OREB / G | 12.9 | 11.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.82 | 1.10 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.0% | 52.7% |
| TOV% | 18.6% | 18.0% |
| ORB% | 34.0% | 32.6% |
| FT Rate | 23.5% | 23.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.0% | 57.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.0% | 18.8% |
| DRB% | 69.3% | 64.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 32.5% | 23.9% |
Game Analysis
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