Betting Lines
| Spread | SHSU -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Under |
| Money | SHSU -192 NMSU +160 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SHSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SHSU +8 | 130 | Won |
| Massey | SHSU -4.9 (+3.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.8 (-25.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 73% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SHSU -4.0 (+4.0) | 151.1 (-21.1) | 71% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SHSU -3.4 (+4.6) | 147.7 (-17.7) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SHSU -4.6 (+3.4) | 149.5 (-19.5) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SHSU -4.7 (+3.3) | 150.3 (-20.3) | 72% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 21, 2025 | NMSU 87 – 78 SHSU |
| Mar 8, 2025 | SHSU 76 – 69 NMSU |
| Jan 3, 2025 | NMSU 75 – 71 SHSU |
| Feb 23, 2024 | SHSU 79 – 58 NMSU |
| Jan 26, 2024 | SHSU 79 – 67 NMSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SHSU | NMSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-12 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 8-12 |
| Home | 13-1 | 10-5 |
| Away | 6-10 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.0 | 73.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.9 | 73.8 |
| Massey | 4.2 (#106) | -0.7 (#175) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.65 (#110) | -0.35 (#211) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.84 (#109) | -0.22 (#183) |
| RPI | 0.550 (#74) | 0.497 (#193) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SHSU | NMSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.2% | 42.4% |
| 3PT% | 38.4% | 32.9% |
| REB / G | 38.1 | 37.1 |
| OREB / G | 12.7 | 12.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.26 | 1.26 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.1% | 48.8% |
| TOV% | 16.7% | 14.8% |
| ORB% | 35.4% | 32.7% |
| FT Rate | 24.9% | 25.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.2% | 49.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.1% | 14.8% |
| DRB% | 70.2% | 70.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.5% | 32.1% |
Game Analysis
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