Betting Lines
| Spread | NMSU -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Over |
| Money | NMSU -218 SHSU +180 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NMSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NMSU +9 | 165 | Won |
| Massey | SHSU -1.3 (+10.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.6 (+10.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 47% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 55% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SHSU -0.7 (+9.7) | 145.8 (+19.2) | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NMSU -0.2 (+8.8) | 146.2 (+18.8) | 50% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SHSU -0.5 (+9.5) | 147.9 (+17.1) | 47% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SHSU -0.4 (+9.4) | 149.6 (+15.4) | 49% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 12, 2026 | SHSU 69 – 61 NMSU |
| Mar 8, 2025 | SHSU 76 – 69 NMSU |
| Jan 3, 2025 | NMSU 75 – 71 SHSU |
| Feb 23, 2024 | SHSU 79 – 58 NMSU |
| Jan 26, 2024 | SHSU 79 – 67 NMSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NMSU | SHSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 22-12 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 13-7 |
| Home | 10-5 | 13-1 |
| Away | 3-8 | 6-10 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.9 | 80.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.8 | 76.9 |
| Massey | 1.9 (#142) | 7.3 (#84) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.80 (#117) | 1.63 (#64) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.43 (#101) | 2.01 (#76) |
| RPI | 0.550 (#93) | 0.612 (#32) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NMSU | SHSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.5% | 44.8% |
| 3PT% | 30.6% | 36.3% |
| REB / G | 36.9 | 38.2 |
| OREB / G | 13.0 | 13.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.15 | 1.14 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.5% | 52.0% |
| TOV% | 17.0% | 17.1% |
| ORB% | 35.8% | 37.8% |
| FT Rate | 28.5% | 25.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.7% | 51.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.6% | 18.4% |
| DRB% | 73.6% | 66.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 37.7% | 32.6% |
Game Analysis
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