Betting Lines
| Spread | SHSU -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Over |
| Money | NMSU +100 SHSU -125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NMSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SHSU +21 | 137 | Lost |
| Massey | SHSU -1.6 (-19.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.8 (-2.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 43% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 45% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SHSU -3.2 (-17.8) | 139.6 (-2.6) | 34% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SHSU -1.4 (-19.6) | 137.2 (-0.2) | 43% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SHSU -1.2 (-19.8) | 139.1 (-2.1) | 40% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SHSU -1.2 (-19.8) | 140.4 (-3.4) | 38% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 12, 2026 | SHSU 69 – 61 NMSU |
| Dec 21, 2025 | NMSU 87 – 78 SHSU |
| Mar 8, 2025 | SHSU 76 – 69 NMSU |
| Jan 3, 2025 | NMSU 75 – 71 SHSU |
| Jan 26, 2024 | SHSU 79 – 67 NMSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NMSU | SHSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 21-12 |
| Conference | 7-9 | 13-3 |
| Home | 12-3 | 12-2 |
| Away | 1-13 | 7-9 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.9 | 71.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.2 | 69.9 |
| Massey | -6.5 (#280) | -1.6 (#186) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.64 (#238) | 0.27 (#150) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.76 (#236) | 0.11 (#161) |
| RPI | 0.457 (#264) | 0.522 (#130) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NMSU | SHSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.4% | 41.4% |
| 3PT% | 30.0% | 34.2% |
| REB / G | 33.7 | 37.3 |
| OREB / G | 9.1 | 11.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.78 | 0.95 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.6% | 47.4% |
| TOV% | 18.9% | 18.6% |
| ORB% | 26.1% | 30.8% |
| FT Rate | 23.6% | 23.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.8% | 51.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.5% | 18.9% |
| DRB% | 70.0% | 73.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 33.4% | 23.8% |
Game Analysis
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