Betting Lines
| Spread | SHSU -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Over |
| Money | SHSU -130 NMSU +110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SHSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SHSU +7 | 145 | Won |
| Massey | NMSU -0.0 (+7.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.7 (+3.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 47% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 46% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NMSU -1.0 (+8.0) | 141.0 (+4.0) | 41% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SHSU -0.2 (+6.8) | 139.8 (+5.2) | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NMSU -0.3 (+7.3) | 138.2 (+6.8) | 47% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | NMSU -0.4 (+7.4) | 140.5 (+4.5) | 44% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 12, 2026 | SHSU 69 – 61 NMSU |
| Dec 21, 2025 | NMSU 87 – 78 SHSU |
| Jan 3, 2025 | NMSU 75 – 71 SHSU |
| Feb 23, 2024 | SHSU 79 – 58 NMSU |
| Jan 26, 2024 | SHSU 79 – 67 NMSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SHSU | NMSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 17-15 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 10-8 |
| Home | 9-4 | 9-6 |
| Away | 3-13 | 8-6 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.9 | 67.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.1 | 67.3 |
| Massey | -1.4 (#182) | 1.9 (#130) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.24 (#194) | 0.44 (#132) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.17 (#180) | 0.66 (#120) |
| RPI | 0.487 (#205) | 0.513 (#158) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SHSU | NMSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.6% | 40.4% |
| 3PT% | 38.9% | 30.8% |
| REB / G | 34.0 | 36.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 11.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.95 | 1.02 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.0% | 46.1% |
| TOV% | 18.6% | 15.7% |
| ORB% | 30.5% | 31.9% |
| FT Rate | 26.0% | 23.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.4% | 46.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.4% | 15.2% |
| DRB% | 68.1% | 72.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.1% | 27.2% |
Game Analysis
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