The tide is high, but I'm holding on. "The Tide is High" - Blondie
Big Sky Conference · Reese Court · January 3, 2025
Betting Lines
Spread MONT -1.5 Away covered
O/U 153.5 Over
Money EWU +100 / MONT -120
Model Predictions
Spread Total EWU win
Actual MONT +11 173 Lost
Massey EWU -1.5 (-12.5)
Massey Totals 155.2 (+17.8)
Bradley-Terry 26%
Weighted B-T 23%
Efficiency Plus ML EWU -0.8 (-11.8) 148.8 (+24.2) 55%
Baseline Tuned ML MONT -0.3 (-10.7) 149.5 (+23.5) 51%
Baseline ML MONT -0.4 (-10.6) 150.8 (+22.2) 55%
Baseline Plus ML MONT -1.0 (-10.0) 150.5 (+22.5) 49%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Feb 6, 2026 EWU 8274 MONT
Jan 10, 2026 EWU 6665 MONT
Mar 4, 2025 MONT 8372 EWU
Mar 1, 2024 EWU 8979 MONT
Feb 4, 2024 EWU 7865 MONT

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings EWU MONT
Overall 10-22 25-10
Conference 6-12 15-3
Home 8-6 15-1
Away 2-14 7-8
Neutral 0-2 3-1
Last 5 1-4 2-3
Streak L6 L1
Avg Pts For 69.6 75.2
Avg Pts Against 76.3 75.0
Massey -4.4 (#243) -1.8 (#191)
Bradley-Terry -1.31 (#289) 0.49 (#129)
W. Bradley-Terry -1.48 (#275) 0.61 (#129)
RPI 0.426 (#301) 0.548 (#92)
Shooting & Four Factors EWU MONT
FG% 45.1% 45.4%
3PT% 32.6% 29.8%
REB / G 29.1 31.7
OREB / G 8.9 8.2
AST / TO 1.15 0.94
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 51.3% 51.4%
TOV% 18.2% 18.7%
ORB% 27.1% 24.6%
FT Rate 22.8% 25.6%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 58.3% 53.5%
Opp TOV% 20.7% 14.7%
DRB% 62.7% 68.9%
Opp FT Rate 25.8% 27.4%

Game Analysis

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