Don't talk to me about your big, big heroes "Kelly's Heroes" - Black Grape
Big South Conference · Paul Porter Arena · January 4, 2025
Betting Lines
Spread GWEB -2.5 Away covered
O/U 146.5 Under
Money GWEB -150 / PRES +130
Model Predictions
Spread Total GWEB win
Actual GWEB +2 124 Won
Massey GWEB -4.8 (-2.8) — —
Massey Totals — 148.8 (-24.8) —
Bradley-Terry — — 66% ✓
Weighted B-T — — 69% ✓
Baseline Plus ML GWEB -2.5 (-0.5) 146.3 (-22.3) 66% ✓
Efficiency Plus ML ★ GWEB -3.3 (-1.3) 144.2 (-20.2) 67% ✓
Baseline Tuned ML GWEB -3.0 (-1.0) 144.8 (-20.8) 66% ✓
Baseline ML GWEB -2.9 (-0.9) 146.8 (-22.8) 67% ✓

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Feb 7, 2026 PRES 68 – 62 GWEB
Jan 17, 2026 PRES 92 – 55 GWEB
Mar 1, 2025 PRES 68 – 57 GWEB
Mar 9, 2024 GWEB 61 – 60 PRES
Feb 8, 2024 PRES 77 – 75 GWEB

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings GWEB PRES
Overall 11-20 14-19
Conference 5-11 7-9
Home 5-6 8-5
Away 3-13 4-12
Neutral 3-1 2-2
Last 5 1-4 1-4
Streak L1 L2
Avg Pts For 73.8 70.5
Avg Pts Against 78.1 72.9
Massey -2.6 (#202) -3.2 (#221)
Bradley-Terry -0.79 (#245) -0.66 (#232)
W. Bradley-Terry -1.00 (#242) -0.94 (#235)
RPI 0.475 (#213) 0.453 (#261)
Shooting & Four Factors GWEB PRES
FG% 47.5% 43.9%
3PT% 33.7% 36.0%
REB / G 35.7 34.3
OREB / G 10.8 11.2
AST / TO 0.68 0.99
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 52.9% 50.3%
TOV% 22.9% 18.0%
ORB% 33.0% 31.6%
FT Rate 25.4% 21.9%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 50.7% 51.9%
Opp TOV% 15.0% 16.8%
DRB% 68.6% 69.0%
Opp FT Rate 26.1% 26.1%

Game Analysis

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