Betting Lines
| Spread | STMN -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 156.5 Over |
| Money | UND +215 STMN -260 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UND win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | STMN +8 | 168 | Lost |
| Massey | STMN -9.1 (+1.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 163.0 (+5.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 15% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 7% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | STMN -8.0 (-0.0) | 156.0 (+12.0) | 22% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | STMN -6.2 (-1.8) | 158.1 (+9.9) | 28% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | STMN -8.2 (+0.2) | 156.8 (+11.2) | 19% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | STMN -8.0 (-0.0) | 157.0 (+11.0) | 24% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 8, 2026 | UND 67 – 66 STMN |
| Jan 30, 2026 | UND 81 – 80 STMN |
| Jan 16, 2026 | STMN 91 – 80 UND |
| Mar 9, 2025 | STMN 85 – 69 UND |
| Feb 28, 2025 | STMN 86 – 71 UND |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UND | STMN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-21 | 24-10 |
| Conference | 5-11 | 12-4 |
| Home | 9-6 | 14-0 |
| Away | 2-12 | 7-8 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.3 | 81.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 82.2 | 76.1 |
| Massey | -7.9 (#293) | 5.3 (#93) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.64 (#308) | 0.84 (#106) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.33 (#310) | 1.15 (#101) |
| RPI | 0.383 (#344) | 0.525 (#124) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UND | STMN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.6% | 48.8% |
| 3PT% | 31.0% | 38.2% |
| REB / G | 38.2 | 30.8 |
| OREB / G | 15.2 | 6.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.83 | 1.29 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.1% | 57.8% |
| TOV% | 18.5% | 15.3% |
| ORB% | 36.3% | 21.0% |
| FT Rate | 22.1% | 24.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.5% | 51.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.9% | 19.0% |
| DRB% | 70.8% | 68.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.3% | 26.7% |
Game Analysis
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