Betting Lines
| Spread | STMN -10.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Over |
| Money | UND +425 STMN -575 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UND win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | STMN +11 | 171 | Lost |
| Massey | STMN -9.3 (-1.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.0 (+17.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 16% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 10% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | STMN -7.8 (-3.2) | 147.3 (+23.7) | 21% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | STMN -8.4 (-2.6) | 148.3 (+22.7) | 20% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | STMN -8.3 (-2.7) | 149.9 (+21.1) | 19% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | STMN -7.3 (-3.7) | 149.4 (+21.6) | 22% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 8, 2026 | UND 67 – 66 STMN |
| Jan 30, 2026 | UND 81 – 80 STMN |
| Mar 9, 2025 | STMN 85 – 69 UND |
| Feb 28, 2025 | STMN 86 – 71 UND |
| Jan 4, 2025 | STMN 88 – 80 UND |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UND | STMN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-17 | 24-10 |
| Conference | 10-6 | 12-4 |
| Home | 9-7 | 14-1 |
| Away | 7-8 | 8-7 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.2 | 80.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.6 | 73.1 |
| Massey | -9.6 (#310) | 3.1 (#121) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.38 (#288) | 0.84 (#100) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.97 (#296) | 0.88 (#107) |
| RPI | 0.436 (#285) | 0.537 (#100) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UND | STMN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.9% | 49.9% |
| 3PT% | 30.8% | 33.2% |
| REB / G | 31.8 | 29.9 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 6.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.97 | 1.75 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.3% | 57.3% |
| TOV% | 15.5% | 13.4% |
| ORB% | 27.7% | 21.0% |
| FT Rate | 25.1% | 24.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.6% | 53.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.4% | 19.1% |
| DRB% | 66.8% | 72.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 32.5% | 24.6% |
Game Analysis
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