Blood in the streets in the town of New Haven "Peace Frog" - The Doors
St. Thomas-Minnesota Tommies
66 67
FINAL Neutral Conference Summit League
North Dakota Fighting Hawks
Summit League · Denny Sanford Premier Center (Neutral) · March 8, 2026
Betting Lines
Spread STMN -11.5 Away covered
O/U 153.5 Under
Money STMN -850 / UND +575
Model Predictions
Spread Total STMN win
Actual UND +1 133 Lost
Massey STMN -12.9 (-13.9)
Massey Totals 156.0 (-23.0)
Bradley-Terry 78%
Weighted B-T 89%
Efficiency Plus ML STMN -14.1 (-15.1) 150.2 (-17.2) 86%
Baseline Tuned ML STMN -12.6 (-13.6) 148.6 (-15.6) 86%
Baseline ML STMN -13.2 (-14.2) 149.4 (-16.4) 87%
Baseline Plus ML STMN -11.2 (-12.2) 150.1 (-17.1) 86%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Jan 30, 2026 UND 8180 STMN
Jan 16, 2026 STMN 9180 UND
Mar 9, 2025 STMN 8569 UND
Feb 28, 2025 STMN 8671 UND
Jan 4, 2025 STMN 8880 UND

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings STMN UND
Overall 24-10 18-17
Conference 12-4 10-6
Home 14-1 9-7
Away 8-7 7-8
Neutral 2-2 2-2
Last 5 4-1 2-3
Streak L2 L1
Avg Pts For 80.9 74.2
Avg Pts Against 73.1 79.6
Massey 4.9 (#103) -7.9 (#291)
Bradley-Terry 0.47 (#124) -0.79 (#239)
W. Bradley-Terry 0.78 (#114) -1.28 (#260)
RPI 0.544 (#87) 0.487 (#214)
Shooting & Four Factors STMN UND
FG% 51.3% 42.8%
3PT% 37.0% 32.6%
REB / G 31.9 32.1
OREB / G 6.7 10.5
AST / TO 1.74 1.09
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 60.0% 49.4%
TOV% 13.9% 14.1%
ORB% 21.7% 28.3%
FT Rate 23.8% 26.1%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 50.7% 57.1%
Opp TOV% 17.1% 19.6%
DRB% 72.3% 67.7%
Opp FT Rate 22.6% 31.9%

Game Analysis

Loading game analysis…

Failed to load game analysis.