Betting Lines
| Spread | UNI -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Over |
| Money | VAL +170 UNI -200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VAL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VAL +7 | 153 | Won |
| Massey | UNI -4.1 (+11.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.5 (+1.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 40% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 32% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNI -2.7 (+9.7) | 148.6 (+4.4) | 43% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNI -3.8 (+10.8) | 145.0 (+8.0) | 36% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNI -3.5 (+10.5) | 148.3 (+4.7) | 38% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UNI -4.0 (+11.0) | 149.7 (+3.3) | 35% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 17, 2026 | VAL 54 – 44 UNI |
| Dec 30, 2025 | UNI 58 – 48 VAL |
| Mar 8, 2025 | VAL 64 – 63 UNI |
| Feb 28, 2024 | UNI 68 – 54 VAL |
| Feb 15, 2024 | UNI 86 – 67 VAL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VAL | UNI |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-19 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 14-6 |
| Home | 10-7 | 14-3 |
| Away | 3-10 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.5 | 72.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.3 | 67.8 |
| Massey | -1.6 (#187) | 6.6 (#85) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.03 (#169) | 1.15 (#86) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.21 (#183) | 1.42 (#91) |
| RPI | 0.493 (#178) | 0.556 (#85) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VAL | UNI |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.2% | 51.6% |
| 3PT% | 30.1% | 38.8% |
| REB / G | 34.0 | 32.3 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 7.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.02 | 1.46 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.9% | 58.5% |
| TOV% | 14.7% | 15.6% |
| ORB% | 30.3% | 24.4% |
| FT Rate | 32.1% | 24.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.1% | 50.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.6% | 17.4% |
| DRB% | 70.4% | 73.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.1% | 18.9% |
Game Analysis
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