Betting Lines
| Spread | UNI -15.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Under |
| Money | UNI -2000 VAL +800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNI win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNI +14 | 122 | Won |
| Massey | UNI -14.4 (-0.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.6 (-20.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNI -12.9 (+1.1) | 146.4 (-24.4) | 88% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNI -10.7 (+3.3) | 143.4 (-21.4) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNI -12.9 (+1.1) | 143.4 (-21.4) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNI -12.6 (+1.4) | 145.8 (-23.8) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 17, 2026 | VAL 54 – 44 UNI |
| Dec 30, 2025 | UNI 58 – 48 VAL |
| Mar 8, 2025 | VAL 64 – 63 UNI |
| Jan 4, 2025 | VAL 80 – 73 UNI |
| Feb 15, 2024 | UNI 86 – 67 VAL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNI | VAL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-14 | 7-25 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 3-17 |
| Home | 11-3 | 6-11 |
| Away | 6-8 | 1-13 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.7 | 66.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.8 | 76.0 |
| Massey | 3.5 (#121) | -7.5 (#295) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.75 (#116) | -1.55 (#310) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.94 (#114) | -1.49 (#293) |
| RPI | 0.542 (#103) | 0.429 (#313) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNI | VAL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.9% | 40.6% |
| 3PT% | 34.5% | 32.5% |
| REB / G | 33.2 | 32.2 |
| OREB / G | 8.0 | 9.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.16 | 1.10 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.3% | 46.4% |
| TOV% | 15.6% | 15.7% |
| ORB% | 24.1% | 25.5% |
| FT Rate | 26.5% | 17.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.4% | 54.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.5% | 17.5% |
| DRB% | 77.1% | 68.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.6% | 22.2% |
Game Analysis
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