Betting Lines
| Spread | UNI -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Under |
| Money | UNI -425 VAL +320 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNI win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VAL +1 | 127 | Lost |
| Massey | UNI -8.2 (-9.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.9 (-16.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 81% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 84% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNI -9.1 (-10.1) | 138.1 (-11.1) | 80% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNI -8.5 (-9.5) | 138.6 (-11.6) | 80% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UNI -8.2 (-9.2) | 138.3 (-11.3) | 79% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNI -7.9 (-8.9) | 139.0 (-12.0) | 78% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 17, 2026 | VAL 54 – 44 UNI |
| Dec 30, 2025 | UNI 58 – 48 VAL |
| Jan 4, 2025 | VAL 80 – 73 UNI |
| Feb 28, 2024 | UNI 68 – 54 VAL |
| Feb 15, 2024 | UNI 86 – 67 VAL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNI | VAL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 15-19 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 6-14 |
| Home | 14-3 | 10-7 |
| Away | 5-6 | 3-10 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.6 | 72.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.8 | 75.3 |
| Massey | 5.0 (#98) | -3.3 (#220) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.97 (#93) | -0.46 (#212) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.99 (#105) | -0.67 (#219) |
| RPI | 0.554 (#79) | 0.462 (#260) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNI | VAL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.8% | 41.7% |
| 3PT% | 36.9% | 31.4% |
| REB / G | 32.5 | 33.1 |
| OREB / G | 8.0 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.33 | 1.13 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.5% | 47.8% |
| TOV% | 15.9% | 14.2% |
| ORB% | 25.6% | 26.7% |
| FT Rate | 24.4% | 27.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.6% | 53.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.6% | 17.3% |
| DRB% | 74.6% | 71.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.1% | 24.8% |
Game Analysis
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