Betting Lines
| Spread | UNI -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 131.5 Under |
| Money | UNI -455 VAL +350 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNI win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNI +10 | 106 | Won |
| Massey | UNI -15.6 (-5.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 122.4 (-16.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNI -11.6 (-1.6) | 131.5 (-25.5) | 83% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNI -11.3 (-1.3) | 134.4 (-28.4) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNI -12.2 (-2.2) | 128.3 (-22.3) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNI -12.2 (-2.2) | 126.1 (-20.1) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 17, 2026 | VAL 54 – 44 UNI |
| Mar 8, 2025 | VAL 64 – 63 UNI |
| Jan 4, 2025 | VAL 80 – 73 UNI |
| Feb 28, 2024 | UNI 68 – 54 VAL |
| Feb 15, 2024 | UNI 86 – 67 VAL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNI | VAL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-13 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 11-9 |
| Home | 12-5 | 13-4 |
| Away | 6-6 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.6 | 71.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 62.5 | 71.9 |
| Massey | 7.7 (#79) | -3.8 (#219) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.37 (#78) | -1.31 (#277) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.54 (#98) | -1.52 (#265) |
| RPI | 0.575 (#63) | 0.416 (#311) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNI | VAL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.0% | 40.1% |
| 3PT% | 34.6% | 30.2% |
| REB / G | 32.6 | 37.9 |
| OREB / G | 6.9 | 13.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.79 | 1.05 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.1% | 45.9% |
| TOV% | 14.1% | 16.0% |
| ORB% | 20.3% | 34.0% |
| FT Rate | 18.3% | 24.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.5% | 48.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.1% | 17.9% |
| DRB% | 71.3% | 66.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.1% | 29.5% |
Game Analysis
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