Betting Lines
| Spread | UNI -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | VAL +225 UNI -300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VAL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNI +19 | 153 | Lost |
| Massey | UNI -6.1 (-12.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.9 (+13.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 20% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 21% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNI -5.2 (-13.8) | 140.9 (+12.1) | 28% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNI -6.7 (-12.3) | 138.4 (+14.6) | 26% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNI -5.9 (-13.1) | 139.1 (+13.9) | 25% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNI -6.2 (-12.8) | 140.5 (+12.5) | 27% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 17, 2026 | VAL 54 – 44 UNI |
| Dec 30, 2025 | UNI 58 – 48 VAL |
| Mar 8, 2025 | VAL 64 – 63 UNI |
| Jan 4, 2025 | VAL 80 – 73 UNI |
| Feb 28, 2024 | UNI 68 – 54 VAL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VAL | UNI |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 7-25 | 19-14 |
| Conference | 3-17 | 12-8 |
| Home | 6-11 | 11-3 |
| Away | 1-13 | 6-8 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.5 | 72.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.0 | 71.8 |
| Massey | -7.0 (#287) | 2.5 (#130) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.39 (#300) | 0.64 (#122) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.28 (#280) | 0.75 (#123) |
| RPI | 0.443 (#280) | 0.546 (#101) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VAL | UNI |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.4% | 45.1% |
| 3PT% | 31.9% | 34.1% |
| REB / G | 33.1 | 32.9 |
| OREB / G | 9.6 | 7.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.08 | 1.14 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.0% | 51.5% |
| TOV% | 15.9% | 15.6% |
| ORB% | 25.2% | 22.9% |
| FT Rate | 18.5% | 25.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.7% | 52.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.2% | 16.5% |
| DRB% | 68.4% | 77.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.2% | 24.5% |
Game Analysis
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