Betting Lines
| Spread | UNI -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 130.5 Under |
| Money | VAL +114 UNI -135 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VAL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VAL +10 | 98 | Won |
| Massey | UNI -2.8 (+12.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 123.3 (-25.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 36% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 36% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNI -2.0 (+12.0) | 129.7 (-31.7) | 37% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNI -2.1 (+12.1) | 129.1 (-31.1) | 46% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNI -1.6 (+11.6) | 127.7 (-29.7) | 40% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UNI -2.4 (+12.4) | 128.8 (-30.8) | 33% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 30, 2025 | UNI 58 – 48 VAL |
| Mar 8, 2025 | VAL 64 – 63 UNI |
| Jan 4, 2025 | VAL 80 – 73 UNI |
| Feb 28, 2024 | UNI 68 – 54 VAL |
| Feb 15, 2024 | UNI 86 – 67 VAL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VAL | UNI |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-15 | 23-13 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 11-9 |
| Home | 13-4 | 12-5 |
| Away | 4-10 | 6-6 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.2 | 68.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.9 | 62.5 |
| Massey | -0.8 (#183) | 5.4 (#100) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.59 (#222) | 0.57 (#117) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.61 (#209) | 0.61 (#127) |
| RPI | 0.456 (#252) | 0.542 (#91) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VAL | UNI |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.8% | 44.8% |
| 3PT% | 31.6% | 33.2% |
| REB / G | 36.8 | 32.8 |
| OREB / G | 12.6 | 7.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 1.63 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.8% | 51.7% |
| TOV% | 16.3% | 14.3% |
| ORB% | 33.0% | 21.4% |
| FT Rate | 28.1% | 18.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.5% | 46.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.3% | 17.9% |
| DRB% | 68.2% | 74.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.5% | 21.4% |
Game Analysis
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