Betting Lines
| Spread | WAG -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 126.5 Under |
| Money | WAG -550 CHST +380 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WAG win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CHST +12 | 116 | Lost |
| Massey | WAG -12.2 (-24.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 116.3 (-0.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WAG -7.3 (-19.3) | 125.8 (-9.8) | 73% ✗ |
| Model 4 ML ★ | WAG -6.2 (-18.2) | 124.5 (-8.5) | 65% ✗ |
| Model 3 ML | WAG -8.1 (-20.1) | 127.3 (-11.3) | 80% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | WAG -7.8 (-19.8) | 127.2 (-11.2) | 71% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | WAG 80 – 61 CHST |
| Jan 3, 2026 | WAG 79 – 72 CHST |
| Feb 22, 2025 | WAG 64 – 52 CHST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WAG | CHST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-16 | 4-28 |
| Conference | 6-10 | 4-12 |
| Home | 8-6 | 3-7 |
| Away | 6-10 | 1-19 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L3 | L8 |
| Avg Pts For | 57.5 | 62.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 63.0 | 78.7 |
| Massey | -9.4 (#317) | -17.6 (#360) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.71 (#235) | -3.41 (#355) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.58 (#282) | -4.66 (#359) |
| RPI | 0.465 (#241) | 0.415 (#319) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WAG | CHST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 34.1% | 35.2% |
| 3PT% | 29.6% | 29.3% |
| REB / G | 34.2 | 32.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.6 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.82 | 0.68 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 39.6% | 41.2% |
| TOV% | 20.1% | 20.4% |
| ORB% | 30.8% | 23.6% |
| FT Rate | 18.0% | 17.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.2% | 55.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.6% | 17.4% |
| DRB% | 73.1% | 63.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.4% | 29.2% |
Game Analysis
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