Betting Lines
| Spread | AUB -18.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Under |
| Money | AUB -4000 MIZ +1300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AUB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AUB +16 | 152 | Won |
| Massey | AUB -18.7 (-2.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 159.7 (-7.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AUB -16.9 (-0.9) | 155.5 (-3.5) | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AUB -18.5 (-2.5) | 155.1 (-3.1) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AUB -16.0 (+0.0) | 156.8 (-4.8) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | AUB -15.4 (+0.6) | 155.7 (-3.7) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 15, 2026 | MIZ 84 – 74 AUB |
| Mar 6, 2024 | AUB 101 – 74 MIZ |
| Feb 15, 2023 | AUB 89 – 56 MIZ |
| Jan 26, 2022 | AUB 55 – 54 MIZ |
| Jan 27, 2021 | AUB 88 – 82 MIZ |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AUB | MIZ |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 32-6 | 22-12 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 10-8 |
| Home | 13-2 | 18-2 |
| Away | 8-2 | 3-7 |
| Neutral | 11-2 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.0 | 83.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.4 | 73.6 |
| Massey | 27.3 (#1) | 12.6 (#44) |
| Bradley-Terry | 4.62 (#2) | 2.20 (#49) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 6.07 (#4) | 3.43 (#33) |
| RPI | 0.697 (#2) | 0.535 (#105) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AUB | MIZ |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.8% | 50.9% |
| 3PT% | 37.1% | 36.5% |
| REB / G | 39.8 | 34.8 |
| OREB / G | 11.8 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 2.21 | 1.29 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 58.8% | 58.2% |
| TOV% | 12.7% | 14.9% |
| ORB% | 36.2% | 33.4% |
| FT Rate | 22.2% | 37.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.9% | 47.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.5% | 22.8% |
| DRB% | 73.9% | 67.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.2% | 20.6% |
Game Analysis
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