Betting Lines
| Spread | AUB -11.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Over |
| Money | MIZ +500 AUB -800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MIZ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AUB +27 | 175 | Lost |
| Massey | AUB -14.5 (-12.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.6 (+26.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 8% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 5% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AUB -12.4 (-14.6) | 153.1 (+21.9) | 16% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AUB -14.7 (-12.3) | 149.4 (+25.6) | 14% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | AUB -14.1 (-12.9) | 151.2 (+23.8) | 15% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AUB -14.2 (-12.8) | 150.2 (+24.8) | 15% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 15, 2026 | MIZ 84 – 74 AUB |
| Jan 4, 2025 | AUB 84 – 68 MIZ |
| Feb 15, 2023 | AUB 89 – 56 MIZ |
| Jan 26, 2022 | AUB 55 – 54 MIZ |
| Jan 27, 2021 | AUB 88 – 82 MIZ |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MIZ | AUB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8-24 | 27-8 |
| Conference | 0-18 | 13-5 |
| Home | 6-11 | 15-1 |
| Away | 2-10 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 7-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L19 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.2 | 83.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.2 | 68.3 |
| Massey | 1.8 (#138) | 19.6 (#7) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.46 (#223) | 2.59 (#12) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.28 (#188) | 3.33 (#9) |
| RPI | 0.469 (#249) | 0.622 (#11) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MIZ | AUB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.3% | 47.0% |
| 3PT% | 32.3% | 34.8% |
| REB / G | 30.8 | 38.2 |
| OREB / G | 8.9 | 11.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.09 | 1.68 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.8% | 53.7% |
| TOV% | 16.8% | 15.1% |
| ORB% | 26.3% | 33.4% |
| FT Rate | 24.6% | 28.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.1% | 44.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.8% | 18.6% |
| DRB% | 64.4% | 70.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 31.2% | 29.4% |
Game Analysis
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