Betting Lines
| Spread | AUB -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Over |
| Money | MIZ -102 AUB -118 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MIZ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MIZ +10 | 158 | Won |
| Massey | AUB -3.0 (+13.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 164.5 (-6.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 54% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 37% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AUB -2.0 (+12.0) | 155.3 (+2.7) | 41% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AUB -1.4 (+11.4) | 155.3 (+2.7) | 35% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AUB -0.9 (+10.9) | 155.2 (+2.8) | 47% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | AUB -1.8 (+11.8) | 154.2 (+3.8) | 46% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 4, 2025 | AUB 84 – 68 MIZ |
| Mar 6, 2024 | AUB 101 – 74 MIZ |
| Feb 15, 2023 | AUB 89 – 56 MIZ |
| Jan 26, 2022 | AUB 55 – 54 MIZ |
| Jan 27, 2021 | AUB 88 – 82 MIZ |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MIZ | AUB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 22-16 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 7-11 |
| Home | 15-3 | 14-4 |
| Away | 5-6 | 2-8 |
| Neutral | 0-4 | 6-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L4 | W5 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.2 | 83.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.5 | 78.8 |
| Massey | 8.5 (#72) | 15.1 (#34) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.90 (#51) | 2.30 (#37) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.53 (#55) | 3.73 (#30) |
| RPI | 0.544 (#92) | 0.610 (#32) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MIZ | AUB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 51.3% | 47.6% |
| 3PT% | 36.0% | 34.8% |
| REB / G | 36.6 | 38.8 |
| OREB / G | 11.6 | 14.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.22 | 1.33 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 58.0% | 54.6% |
| TOV% | 18.4% | 15.5% |
| ORB% | 36.3% | 39.9% |
| FT Rate | 26.4% | 32.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.1% | 52.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.8% | 17.2% |
| DRB% | 71.2% | 68.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.4% | 23.8% |
Game Analysis
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