Betting Lines
| Spread | AUB -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Over |
| Money | AUB -138 MIZ +150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AUB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AUB +6 | 170 | Won |
| Massey | MIZ -1.6 (+7.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.7 (+23.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 20% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 23% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AUB -1.1 (+4.9) | 145.0 (+25.0) | 63% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AUB -1.3 (+4.7) | 144.5 (+25.5) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AUB -0.2 (+5.8) | 145.5 (+24.5) | 50% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | AUB -0.7 (+5.3) | 145.8 (+24.2) | 57% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 15, 2026 | MIZ 84 – 74 AUB |
| Jan 4, 2025 | AUB 84 – 68 MIZ |
| Mar 6, 2024 | AUB 101 – 74 MIZ |
| Feb 15, 2023 | AUB 89 – 56 MIZ |
| Jan 26, 2022 | AUB 55 – 54 MIZ |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AUB | MIZ |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-14 | 16-10 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 8-8 |
| Home | 8-5 | 8-4 |
| Away | 3-8 | 6-4 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | W1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.2 | 73.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.4 | 71.9 |
| Massey | 9.3 (#59) | 13.5 (#29) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.30 (#85) | 3.16 (#10) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.98 (#73) | 3.71 (#21) |
| RPI | 0.538 (#102) | 0.663 (#4) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AUB | MIZ |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.5% | 45.7% |
| 3PT% | 33.8% | 29.0% |
| REB / G | 38.9 | 37.2 |
| OREB / G | 12.3 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.90 | 0.90 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.5% | 51.0% |
| TOV% | 22.8% | 20.2% |
| ORB% | 34.5% | 30.8% |
| FT Rate | 24.0% | 29.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.7% | 44.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.2% | 18.2% |
| DRB% | 69.8% | 69.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.9% | 22.8% |
Game Analysis
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