Betting Lines
| Spread | AUB -12.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Under |
| Money | MIZ +650 AUB -1000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MIZ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AUB +1 | 109 | Lost |
| Massey | AUB -17.5 (+16.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.9 (-34.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 4% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 2% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AUB -11.8 (+10.8) | 146.4 (-37.4) | 17% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AUB -10.8 (+9.8) | 143.7 (-34.7) | 21% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AUB -12.1 (+11.1) | 145.9 (-36.9) | 15% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | AUB -12.0 (+11.0) | 146.8 (-37.8) | 16% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 15, 2026 | MIZ 84 – 74 AUB |
| Jan 4, 2025 | AUB 84 – 68 MIZ |
| Mar 6, 2024 | AUB 101 – 74 MIZ |
| Feb 15, 2023 | AUB 89 – 56 MIZ |
| Jan 27, 2021 | AUB 88 – 82 MIZ |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MIZ | AUB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-21 | 28-6 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 15-3 |
| Home | 8-8 | 16-0 |
| Away | 2-10 | 8-3 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.7 | 78.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.8 | 67.2 |
| Massey | -1.8 (#206) | 19.2 (#7) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.49 (#139) | 4.11 (#1) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.66 (#127) | 4.99 (#3) |
| RPI | 0.511 (#158) | 0.682 (#2) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MIZ | AUB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.0% | 46.0% |
| 3PT% | 27.1% | 34.2% |
| REB / G | 35.9 | 38.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.6 | 11.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.79 | 1.34 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.4% | 53.0% |
| TOV% | 21.2% | 16.0% |
| ORB% | 32.5% | 31.8% |
| FT Rate | 21.4% | 21.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.8% | 45.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.2% | 21.9% |
| DRB% | 70.1% | 71.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.9% | 23.7% |
Game Analysis
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