Betting Lines
| Spread | AUB -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Under |
| Money | AUB -300 MIZ +225 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AUB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AUB +33 | 145 | Won |
| Massey | AUB -5.9 (+27.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.5 (-9.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 54% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AUB -5.5 (+27.5) | 151.6 (-6.6) | 70% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AUB -6.8 (+26.2) | 151.7 (-6.7) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AUB -5.3 (+27.7) | 152.1 (-7.1) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | AUB -5.0 (+28.0) | 153.3 (-8.3) | 71% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 15, 2026 | MIZ 84 – 74 AUB |
| Jan 4, 2025 | AUB 84 – 68 MIZ |
| Mar 6, 2024 | AUB 101 – 74 MIZ |
| Jan 26, 2022 | AUB 55 – 54 MIZ |
| Jan 27, 2021 | AUB 88 – 82 MIZ |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AUB | MIZ |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-13 | 25-10 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 11-7 |
| Home | 14-2 | 16-3 |
| Away | 4-8 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.8 | 78.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.7 | 74.4 |
| Massey | 11.9 (#29) | 9.6 (#52) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.91 (#44) | 2.38 (#22) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.30 (#44) | 2.58 (#34) |
| RPI | 0.599 (#26) | 0.595 (#30) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AUB | MIZ |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.7% | 48.2% |
| 3PT% | 29.2% | 36.6% |
| REB / G | 37.5 | 31.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.2 | 9.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.13 | 1.49 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.9% | 56.1% |
| TOV% | 18.3% | 16.0% |
| ORB% | 34.5% | 27.7% |
| FT Rate | 25.0% | 23.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.4% | 52.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.4% | 24.3% |
| DRB% | 68.9% | 62.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.7% | 26.4% |
Game Analysis
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