Betting Lines
| Spread | MIA -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | VT +105 MIA -125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VT +1 | 171 | Won |
| Massey | VT -1.2 (-0.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.8 (+22.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 81% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VT -1.7 (-0.7) | 145.1 (+25.9) | 57% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VT -2.5 (-1.5) | 143.8 (+27.2) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VT -2.3 (-1.3) | 145.7 (+25.3) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VT -1.4 (-0.4) | 146.3 (+24.7) | 55% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 18, 2026 | MIA 67 – 66 VT |
| Feb 22, 2025 | VT 81 – 68 MIA |
| Feb 3, 2024 | MIA 82 – 74 VT |
| Jan 14, 2024 | MIA 75 – 71 VT |
| Feb 22, 2023 | MIA 76 – 70 VT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VT | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 7-24 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 3-17 |
| Home | 8-9 | 7-10 |
| Away | 5-5 | 0-10 |
| Neutral | 0-5 | 0-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L3 | W1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.2 | 74.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.2 | 80.6 |
| Massey | -0.3 (#162) | 2.6 (#120) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.71 (#236) | -1.42 (#296) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.83 (#229) | -1.40 (#266) |
| RPI | 0.481 (#202) | 0.446 (#277) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VT | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.2% | 47.8% |
| 3PT% | 34.3% | 31.4% |
| REB / G | 34.2 | 34.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.95 | 1.21 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.2% | 54.3% |
| TOV% | 21.0% | 15.6% |
| ORB% | 34.1% | 30.8% |
| FT Rate | 24.2% | 21.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.5% | 53.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.4% | 15.8% |
| DRB% | 70.6% | 72.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.8% | 22.1% |
Game Analysis
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