Betting Lines
| Spread | VT -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | MIA +110 VT -130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MIA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VT +13 | 149 | Lost |
| Massey | MIA -2.0 (-15.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.4 (-2.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 34% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 43% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MIA -0.3 (-13.3) | 142.8 (+6.2) | 56% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VT -0.4 (-12.6) | 141.2 (+7.8) | 47% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MIA -1.3 (-14.3) | 144.9 (+4.1) | 56% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MIA -0.8 (-13.8) | 145.5 (+3.5) | 50% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 18, 2026 | MIA 67 – 66 VT |
| Jan 4, 2025 | VT 86 – 85 MIA |
| Feb 3, 2024 | MIA 82 – 74 VT |
| Jan 14, 2024 | MIA 75 – 71 VT |
| Feb 22, 2023 | MIA 76 – 70 VT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MIA | VT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 7-24 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 3-17 | 8-12 |
| Home | 7-10 | 8-9 |
| Away | 0-10 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 0-4 | 0-5 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | W1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.0 | 69.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 80.6 | 73.2 |
| Massey | -0.4 (#166) | 0.8 (#147) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.10 (#274) | 0.14 (#162) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.00 (#247) | -0.09 (#172) |
| RPI | 0.447 (#283) | 0.487 (#204) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MIA | VT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.4% | 43.6% |
| 3PT% | 31.8% | 35.4% |
| REB / G | 31.9 | 33.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.3 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.20 | 0.99 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.6% | 50.7% |
| TOV% | 15.7% | 19.8% |
| ORB% | 28.1% | 32.7% |
| FT Rate | 21.7% | 23.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.6% | 52.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.1% | 16.2% |
| DRB% | 69.5% | 71.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.3% | 23.8% |
Game Analysis
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