Betting Lines
| Spread | MIA -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Over |
| Money | MIA -200 VT +155 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MIA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MIA +8 | 156 | Won |
| Massey | MIA -3.8 (+4.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.8 (+4.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 61% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MIA -3.6 (+4.4) | 147.4 (+8.6) | 69% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MIA -3.0 (+5.0) | 145.3 (+10.7) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MIA -3.4 (+4.6) | 146.6 (+9.4) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MIA -3.1 (+4.9) | 146.3 (+9.7) | 69% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 18, 2026 | MIA 67 – 66 VT |
| Feb 22, 2025 | VT 81 – 68 MIA |
| Jan 4, 2025 | VT 86 – 85 MIA |
| Jan 14, 2024 | MIA 75 – 71 VT |
| Feb 22, 2023 | MIA 76 – 70 VT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MIA | VT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 19-15 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 10-10 |
| Home | 11-6 | 15-2 |
| Away | 2-9 | 2-10 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L10 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.8 | 74.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.6 | 71.0 |
| Massey | 9.9 (#52) | 9.6 (#56) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.53 (#69) | 1.72 (#54) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.91 (#68) | 2.20 (#51) |
| RPI | 0.557 (#87) | 0.581 (#52) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MIA | VT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.2% | 46.6% |
| 3PT% | 37.9% | 36.2% |
| REB / G | 37.6 | 33.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 7.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.20 | 1.30 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.7% | 54.2% |
| TOV% | 17.5% | 17.6% |
| ORB% | 29.2% | 26.0% |
| FT Rate | 20.1% | 27.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.0% | 49.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.2% | 17.8% |
| DRB% | 72.4% | 73.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 14.9% | 19.8% |
Game Analysis
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